Looking for advice from ORB traders. (Especially for indices)

Got into day trading about 4 months ago. Approached it from a Macro point of view and a plucky attitude. My gains and losses looked like a cardiograph, going from low to double or tripling, just to go back down to below where I started. I came to realize I had no real structure for my trading, I was over trading and worse, revenge trading. Without a plan or structure I just kept spiraling while I was losing. Which brings me here, I realize now that without a structured strategy or plan I'm just going to keep repeating those same mistakes. I've been looking into strategies around ORB trading on the 15m chart. I've been backtesting which seems to indicate a potentially successful means of day trading. I'm hoping to learn some nuances from y'all. There's a lot of noise on YouTube from ORB traders(and comment sections filled with bots), but what have you found that personally has worked for you? What confluence or indicators have best assisted with ORB trading and why? How do you avoid fakeouts (if possible). How much risk do you allow? I appreciate any and all advice

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u/dishonestcemetery 1 13 hours ago

I went through the same spiral early on, ORB on the 15m works best when you stop trying to catch the exact break and wait for the retest. Most fakeouts I see happen when price just barely pokes through the range then reverses, so I don’t even count it unless we get a full candle close outside Adding volume profile to spot where the real orders are sitting makes a difference, if the breakout happens on thin volume I just let it go. I risk about 1% per trade and only take setups where the stop is tight against the opening range, wider stops never seem to pan out for me What indices are you looking at, ES moves different from NQ when it comes to these plays
u/Independence1995 OP 1 13 hours ago

What do you suggest for volume profile exactly? I'm using trading view and have RSI 14 close and MACD close 12, 26, 9. Thanks for commenting
u/jtquach 1 13 hours ago

The ORB was my bread and butter play... 4 years ago. So was trading only the first hour of the day. Those two things were pretty much marketed everywhere back then. It can still work but it's so environment and regime dependent. You've got to understand which days they work, how well aligned the indices are (I track SPY, SPX and QQQ) and where the VIX is relative to them. There's only so many days they work now compared to years ago. I don't even bother marking it anymore. On your fakeout question, the break and retest is what most people take. That's a continuation play and it's the most obvious one on the chart. These days I'd rather play toward one end of the range than wait for the confirmation and take the break after the retest. That's a secondary entry not a main imo. Depending on the price action, the environment and where exposure sits, you might even be better off taking the reversal.