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u/Patarokun
18 hours ago
🗣 Discussion / Question
Warrants - a steel man case about how they could expire out of the money. 😑
I've prepared myself to be downvoted into oblivion, but here's a cool-headed take on warrants. At least worth considering. 🤷
When warrants were issued a year ago Cohen and the team had the eBay idea mapped out. They knew it wouldn't be easy but that if things went well around now they'd be inking a deal for a merger.
This would send GME way up and as a reward investors they preloaded the $32 warrants. A nice gift for holders and a bag of cash for the business.
The eBay request happens and I think Cohen was legitimately surprised how harsh the backlash was. In that one interview he expressed frustration about how everyone roots against GameStop and how the deal is a no-brainer if you just look at the facts.
This sends him back to the drawing board, working on alternative funding, shoring up debt issues as we saw with the early bond thing, it's all taking a long time. That's fine, he's patient and persistent, but it does mean the warrants aren't going be at $32 in time.
So many people think they're going to do some trickplay to get them in the money or extend, but we're nearly out of time here. Cohen and the board have shown this whole time that they DON'T like to do business gimmicks and just play things straight down the middle. It would be out of character.
There's a very real chance the warrants were an idea that just didn't come to fruition and they'd rather let them expire and move on with the plan. As Cohen said he doesn't care if people like him, he's going to do what's best for the business. That might mean letting go of sunk-cost fallacy and just letting warrants expire.
If true I'm not too bummed. They cost us nothing, the dilution doesn't happen, and we can finally move on.
Ok you can smash that downvote now!