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u/Inevitable_Abies_777 21 hours ago

Retiring in 8 to 10 years, going 80% S&P 500 / 8% QQQ / 6% SMH / 6% single stocks. Rate it.

Planning to retire in 8 to 10 years. Household spends about 2.8% of liquid assets a year, so the math works on the index alone. I also need to leave a meaningful amount behind for a dependent who will outlive me by decades, so this money has a 40-year horizon, not a 10-year one. Current plan, held mostly in IRAs with no tax cost to change: * 80% S&P 500 index * 8% QQQ * 6% SMH * 6% single names, mostly NVDA, plus a small SpaceX fund position * Deferred comp (about 16% of the total) sits in bonds and is the only fixed income until I move the traditional IRAs toward bonds about three years before retirement * Rule: rerun the plan every January; if the tilt trails the S&P over a trailing 10 years, cut it in half. No selling in a crash, decided in advance. My thinking: the AI build-out is $800B+ a year of real capex and the index already owns the top of it; QQQ and SMH add the chip-making and memory layer the S&P under-owns. I know the 2000 to 2010 numbers for tech and semis, and I’m sizing the tilt so a repeat lengthens recovery but doesn’t break the retirement date. How would you rate this? If bad, why. If you’d do better, how. Appreciate the guidance.
10 comments held Reddit says 0 on reddit ↗
  1. u/W-33- 1 21 hours ago
    Totally fine imo.
  2. u/HammerDownl 1 21 hours ago
    More QQQ. Less S&P.
  3. u/Wise-Parsnip5803 1 20 hours ago
    S&P is already fairly heavy in the same stocks as qqq. 
  4. u/EchoChamberTech 1 21 hours ago
    Depends on age. What happens if the market drops 25% during that period? To be clear. I'm not predicting it will, so chill out in my replies before everyone piles on. Typically that would be a bit higher risk than someone looking to retire in 8 to 10 years. If you are comfortable and accepting of that then it's fine. But if you would be devastated with a crash, then I would go a lot more into bonds and international stocks in addition to the USA market.
  5. u/TrashPanda_924 1 20 hours ago
    In retirement, I think you’ll want a little more in stability and cash flow. The AI buildout may keep going or it may pause. I’d probably add a TIPS ladder or some other bond ladder the closer you get.
  6. u/railbeast 1 20 hours ago
    You good starting your retirement counting pennies in the worst case? Or are you going to retire and go "ahh, time to spend money!" If the second one, TIPS ladder and out of risky stocks.
  7. u/Travel_Banned_Temp 1 20 hours ago
    Is there a good fund that avoids tech stock, AI, semi conductors all together? Just curious. Even if only as a hedge.
  8. u/hogpotato 1 20 hours ago
    BRK.B is a reasonable hedge I think
  9. u/kalterik 1 20 hours ago
    About 5/10. No international stocks or small/mid caps and no ability to buy dips. Look at a 2035-2040 target date fund for an allocation baseline.
  10. u/Chonan_Akira 1 20 hours ago
    NVDA: 8% of S&P 500, 9% of QQQ, 22% of SMH, 100% of NVDA Numbers not exact but watch for concentration risk.