S&P500 vs bonds

Yes or no or maybe

This guy or gal gets it.

The market’s not just hoping for 8-9% based on the last four years, it’s pricing in a future where companies keep printing money and inflation stays sticky. Bonds look safe on paper but 5% YTM gets real ugly if inflation ticks back up and eats half your real return. Plus plenty of folks are chasing equity premiums because they don’t trust the bond market to stay calm if the fed has to pivot again

Because 8-9% is not the "classic return you pray for" that would be a below average return.

8-9% was the average return prior to the recent bull run, for the past 100 years.

10% is the conservative estimate if you're including the dividends. And so you're asking why someone would want to literally double their money made?

One return is nominal and the other adjusted for inflation

Thank you, this seems to be always missed when people talk about bond yields.

In 30 years you won't care. Short term or Mid term money = Cash, HYSA, ST Bonds, MT bonds. Long Term money = stocks

If earnings growth continues at its current pace, S&P 500 might get 8-9% return in 6 months or less.

Huh? If you're fine with a 5% nominal return then you should just buy bonds... if you are looking for a higher return you need to take on more risk...

Your argument falls apart because you're ignoring the economic environment. Stocks thrive in inflationary, growth-oriented environments; bonds shine during deflation and economic crises. With recession odds near zero, stocks delivering historically normal returns shouldn't be surprising. And bonds yielding 5%? That's the market pricing in today's environment. If inflation worsens, yields may need to rise further, crushing existing bond prices. But sure, let's compare asset classes while pretending macroeconomic conditions don't matter.

Welche sichere Anleihe bringt weit über 5%?

Nothing is "risk free". These are terms used by people trying to sell you something and get a commission. The purchasing power of bonds is permanently lost with inflation. Companies can raise prices to keep up with inflation so stocks of large established companies can perform well even with high inflation. Since we don't know the future we use some reasonable diversification based on age, net worth, and other factors.

As Ron Baron once said. “I haven’t owned bonds ever, I’m always long equities”