ASML and TSMC report back to back this week, and I think ASML’s own guidance has set a harder bar than people realise

ASML reports Wednesday before the US open and TSMC follows Thursday, which gives us the equipment maker and its most important customer within about 24 hours. Most of the conversation I’m seeing is about whether AI demand holds up and capex to continue, I think the most important point this week is ASML’s back half delivering what management already promised. Here is what the company itself guided in July, Q3 sales of €11.0-12.0B, up from €9.3B in Q2, and a full year of €43-45B. First half sales were about €18.1B, if Q3 lands at the €11.5B midpoint, ASML needs roughly €13.4B in Q4 just to hit the low end of the year, and around €15.4B to hit the top. Its previous record quarter was €9.7B in Q4 2025, very steep ramp. Management said memory related system sales should grow over 75% this year and advanced logic over 25%, which tells you DRAM makers and TSMC are both spending hard. TSMC’s monthly sales back that up, with Q3 revenue already reported at NT$1.494T, up about 51% year on year and above its own guidance. If the biggest foundry is running that hot, the ASML portion has to be there. Although, ASML stopped reporting quarterly bookings after Q4 2025, so this is the first Q3 where the market can’t check the order book directly. The options market is pricing about a 5.6% move either way. In July 2025 ASML beat and still closed 11% lower because management wouldn’t commit to the next year. The macro piece connects the two also, US CPI comes out Wednesday morning, the Fed hiked in September, and the 10 year is above 5%. Semis are carrying some of the richest multiples in the market, so a hot core print raises the discount rate on exactly these names right before both reports. If ASML’s Q4 guide implies less than €13.4B, or if TSMC trims its 2026 capex commentary on Thursday, the market will treat it as the first sign that AI capex is peaking, regardless of the headline beats. Does losing the bookings disclosure make you trust ASML’s guidance more or less?