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u/Individual-Round2767 1 day ago Stock Analysis

My take on ADBE as ex SWE at Adobe

I see a lot of people posting here about how Adobe is a value stock, and I disagree with that. So I wanted to explain why I think Adobe is more of a trap than a value stock. I was working at Adobe until about 6 months ago. I may be biased because I hated working at this company, but I will try to just explain what I experienced while I was there. The management does not seem to have a clear plan for what to do with their products. They just keep trying different things and hoping something works. I never really saw a clear vision for the company. When I was at Adobe, very few projects lasted more than a few months. Most of them would get deprioritized within a couple of weeks. Many times I was told, hey, this new task came from upper management and it is high priority, we need to do this fast. Then a week or two later, that task would get deprioritized and something else would become the new priority. This just kept happening. If there was a VP visit, things got even worse. Teams would be asked to create some bullshit demo for the VP or other upper management just to impress them. These demos were usually not going anywhere and could not actually be used. A lot of them were basically just an API call to GPT to do something with an image, and then it would be presented as some new generative AI feature. I don't understand how management would get impressed by these things, but I think they did. These are projects that school students could probably build nowadays. There were also some very senior developers( fellows), whose job seemed to be largely about creating these demos, impressing management, and getting promoted. It seems that at Adobe creating demos matters more than actually having an impact on the company. In any good company, I would expect a senior engineer should be judged based on their actual impact on the company, whether that is revenue, product adoption, technical improvements, or something similar. Then there are the PMs. All the PMs that I worked with did not even know their own features properly. They did not use them much, so as a developer I sometimes had to show them how to use features they were supposed to own. Whenever there was a new requirement, it would take a long time to get the specifications. By the time we got them, there was not enough time left for developers to actually build the feature before the deadline. Then the requirements would change multiple times because we would tell them something was not technically possible, or because there were mistakes in the original specs. For a few weeks I was sitting next to some of these PMs, and a lot of their daily conversations were about whose house they were going to have the next house party at. I also remember people asking our old CEO about the stock price. His answer was basically that the stock was undervalued and that he was going to do something about it. When the last time I saw him, he did not even say that anymore. I guess he lost hope too. Then comes Firefly, which is probably the most sucky AI model I have ever seen. Adobe spent a lot of money developing it and marketed it heavily around being commercially safe. The idea itself was fine, but Adobe is not Google, Meta, or Microsoft. They cannot afford to hire the absolute best AI researchers and engineers at the same scale, and they also do not have the same amount of data to train a competitive model. The result was a model that was simply not good. Adobe integrated Firefly into almost every Adobe product, but people do not actually use it. From the analytics that I have seen, most people simply use third party models like Gemini and GPT because obviously they produce better images. Even if those models are not commercially safe, it does not really feel like people are bothered by that. At least from the data I saw, it seems like people do not really care that much about whether the model is commercially safe or not. They just want the model that produces better results. What I don't understand is that even after Firefly failed to compete, Adobe continued to pour billions into developing a product that is nowhere near as good as the competition and that people are not actually using, while Adobe still has to pay for those third party models when users use them instead. At this point, I feel like a lot of people at Adobe are just trying to salvage whatever piece of the pie they can before this ship sinks. There are a lot more things I could say, but this post is already getting long and I do not think it would serve much purpose to keep going. This is just my experience from working there, and obviously I could be biased. But based on what I saw, I personally do not see Adobe as the value stock that many people here seem to think it is. Have a nice day.
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  1. u/PiedPipercorn 2 1 day ago
    Great write up…
  2. u/TechTuna1200 2 1 day ago
    https://getartcraft.com/ Also Someone reversed engineered adobe whole product suite and open-sourced it. Adobe products are basically free now.
  3. u/Individual-Round2767 OP 2 1 day ago
    Saw that. Currently though it isn't as feature dense as Adobe products but in future who knows
  4. u/TechTuna1200 1 1 day ago
    Yup, they only spent a few weeks on the current version. A few months from now it's gonna be a different story.
  5. u/Magacommunist3873 0 1 day ago
    Lol I wonder if ppl sharing this thing is part of a marketing strategy or something. First of all Adobe has always been free for non-enterprise users because pirating exists. I somehow have the entire suite on my PC from some russian website without paying a dime (For legal reasons this is a joke) . Second of all, there is most likely going to be huge legal issues with this if it was reverse engineered by using adobe machine code (they will most likely be fine if they can prove all AI did was copy the features instead of actual reverse engineering, unless the AI infringed some patents), which means corporations will never risk using this. Third of all they are all buggy and by the time they fix everything, adobe will be on to the next feature, which means enterprise will still stay on Adobe suite, not to mention the cost to maintain this without any revenue source, it will just turn into the other open source adobe alternatives like GIMP.
  6. u/TechTuna1200 1 1 day ago
    You can't legally use pirated software if you are company. On the other hand, you can legally use open sourced software as an enterprise and you can modify it in anyway you want. It's only been a few days. Give it a few months and all the bugs are ironed out.
  7. u/Magacommunist3873 1 1 day ago
    you can legally use open sourced software as an enterprise
    Lol, I added a new paragraph to my comment. An open source software does not mean free for adoption by enterprise, especially something that will most likely have legal issues and something that may not be actively maintained.
  8. u/TechTuna1200 1 1 day ago
    There are no legal issues. Because it's a "clean room reimplemantion". They asked Claude to rebuild on public specifictions without copying a single line of code. It would only have issues if the code was similar line for line. But it isn't. This is fully legal. Also for enterprise
  9. u/Magacommunist3873 1 1 day ago
    Yet. "clean room reimplemantion" is what they claim and even if that's true you don't know if they violated any patents. Like I said, you as an individual don't have to worry, enterprise does. Life isn't so simple.
  10. u/TechTuna1200 1 1 day ago
    The patents protect the implementation. So they have to prove that their Cluade is using the exact same proprietary algorithmn that is not public. If there are any slight deviation, the patens won't hold
  11. u/Magacommunist3873 1 1 day ago
    Incorrect, patents do not only protect implementation. I think you're finally starting to see the possible legal issues lol.
  12. u/TechTuna1200 1 1 day ago
    Keep bagholding, buddy
  13. u/Magacommunist3873 1 1 day ago
    I'm actually 6% up LOL. And you should see my other comment, I only have 1k in it which is 0.5% of my portfolio, so I don't really care if it goes bankrupt 😂 This seems like a very emotional response, maybe I hit a nerve.
  14. u/TechTuna1200 1 1 day ago
    I have 0 USD in it. It's your money not mine. And it doesn't sound like you don't care. You sound like you care a lot 😂
  15. u/Magacommunist3873 1 1 day ago
    Lol, again, read the disclaimer under my comment 😂 I am having an argument on why I bought it in the first place and I am defending my thesis. "I don't care" as in I don't care if this money goes to 0 bud. You seem to care a lot for someone with 0 skin in the game, at least I have a reason to defend a thesis. Maybe you should open a short position.
  16. u/TechTuna1200 1 1 day ago
    I'm a designer by trade. That's my skin in the game. Take care, you look like you gonna burn out from aruging with 5-6 people the same time in this thread.
  17. u/Magacommunist3873 1 1 day ago
    Take care, you look like you gonna burn out from aruging with 5-6 people the same time in this thread.
    Oh don't worry about me, I love to argue 😂 I'm not one to start an argument and then start using emotional comments like "enjoy bag holding". I love to see and argue other peoples' perspectives and maybe end up changing my own.
    I'm a designer by trade
    That's cool, you're a consumer. Doesn't really validate much of what you said, but its cool.
  18. u/TechTuna1200 1 1 day ago
    Oh so you do care ? 😂 And you not being a consumer validates it ? 😂 Anyways, last message for me. Best of luck with your investment
  19. u/Magacommunist3873 1 1 day ago
    I'm confused if you're illiterate or you just have selective reading. I mentioned in the previous comment that "I don't care" for the money I have invested in but I love arguing 😂
    And you not being a consumer validates it ? 😂
    I think this confirms you are illiterate, because I never mentioned not being a consumer. I hope this was your last comment because you really can't make arguments.
  20. u/StyleFree3085 1 1 day ago
    Check the license. If the license allows, then it is legit. And tons of open source software allow commercial use e.g. Blender
  21. u/Magacommunist3873 1 1 day ago
    My argument on this case isn't license. I'm saying there may be legal issues in the future that may hinder the maintainability of these apps.
  22. u/StyleFree3085 1 1 day ago
    Tons of Webapp runs on React, tons of 3D projects created by Blender, tons of indie game devs using Godot, all open source...
  23. u/Magacommunist3873 0 1 day ago
    None of which have licensing issues nor legal issues...... You are comparing apples to oranges.
  24. u/StyleFree3085 1 1 day ago
    That's why people switch to open source... I am sure Adobe Flash has the best maintainability lol
  25. u/Magacommunist3873 1 1 day ago
    I think you're confused on what the argument at hand even is. You are comparing software that was open sourced by the developing company to something that was copied, and possibly infringes IP laws. It doesn't matter if Adobe Flash doesn't have the best maintainability. If there is ANY legal issues around this software, it will hinder its future, which raises risk for enterprise.
  26. u/teckers 1 1 day ago
    Unlikely, the cat is out of the bag with this one, the code is out there, it's a little buggy but it's only 3 weeks into development, ai can maintain it, fork it, change it. It can't be stopped now by any legal process. To be honest, ai coding ability is only getting better, fast, maintaining stuff that ai built today by a better ai in the future and by other random people is not going to be a problem.
  27. u/Magacommunist3873 1 1 day ago
    "It can't be stopped now by any legal process" everything enterprise uses can be stopped by legal issues lol.
  28. u/StyleFree3085 1 1 day ago
     all Adobe has always been free for non-enterprise users
    You mean they raised price on my student plan implicitly??
  29. u/Magacommunist3873 1 1 day ago
    Please re-read what I wrote.
  30. u/StyleFree3085 1 1 day ago
    How does it matter?? Everyone knows Adobe subscription is robbery, they even got fined for it because they made the cancellation process so inconvenient
  31. u/Magacommunist3873 1 1 day ago
    What do you mean "how does that matter" lol. I am telling you there are already ways to get the actual adobe suite for free. I'm not here arguing about their pricing. If you really care about getting adobe clones that are "close to adobe", just pirate it. This only matters if you are an enterprise. I would be on your side if these clones were BETTER than adobe, but that is not the case, yet.
  32. u/Magacommunist3873 1 1 day ago
    Also I want to be clear in this comment section, I do have investment in Adobe but it's more like a bet lol. I only have 1k in Adobe stock and its less than 0.5% of my portfolio. If I lose I lose small, if I win I win big, so I don't really care, I'm just sharing my thesis of why I bought it/what I see in the long term.
  33. u/Mickelangello 4 1 day ago
    You just described every other corporate.
  34. u/Individual-Round2767 OP 1 1 day ago
    My current company and first company weren't like that. So I would say no, not every company is like that
  35. u/scam_likely_6969 1 1 day ago
    What level of developer are you btw? Senior or junior? I was a senior+ PM at a different saas company before ADBE. and that one is a sinking ship too nowadays
  36. u/iyankov96 3 1 day ago
    Are you at Adobe now ?
  37. u/scam_likely_6969 3 1 day ago
    Yup. Internal tech. So I don’t get as much exposure to how our true product teams operate. It’s a slow, big, nice WLB company. Not a place to get rich but a good place to retire at. Esp if you discount the RSUs in your head.
  38. u/Individual-Round2767 OP 3 1 day ago
    I had 3 years of experience when i joined Adobe so you can say mid level like swe2
  39. u/parkeyb 1 1 day ago
    So a junior 20 year old. Got it
  40. u/Individual-Round2767 OP 1 1 day ago
    3YOE is not junior. Junior is like 1-2 yoe
  41. u/Preavee 1 1 day ago
    Its a junior.
  42. u/culinaryinterests123 0 1 day ago
    so you worked at every  corporation ?or how the would you know that?
  43. u/cigarettesandwater 2 1 day ago
    Came to say the same. This is literally FAANG. No one knows what the fuck theyre doing
  44. u/hazxrrd 1 1 day ago
    Did my WSB 100k post that you commented on spur this post? Regardless thanks for your opinion
  45. u/Individual-Round2767 OP 0 1 day ago
    Not exactly. I have been thinking of writing it for a few months but didn't get time
  46. u/moutonbleu 1 1 day ago
    How long did you work there, and was it a good experience overall (work life balance)? Hopefully you sold your stocks early
  47. u/Individual-Round2767 OP 1 1 day ago
    3 years. WLB wasn't very good but manageable
  48. u/Individual-Round2767 OP 1 1 day ago
    Yeah I sold everything
  49. u/tikstar 1 1 day ago
    This backs up everything you said about the company.
  50. u/supercomic273 1 1 day ago
    Has the suite of products changed much in the past 5 years? If not, how/why does adobe spend so much on R&D and S&M?
  51. u/Individual-Round2767 OP 1 1 day ago
    They do add new features quite frequently.
  52. u/supercomic273 1 1 day ago
    Thx and thx for your original insightful post. In your opinion are the new features large or more incremental?
  53. u/Individual-Round2767 OP 1 1 day ago
    Incremental, that's why you probably not saw much improvement in last 5 years.
  54. u/iyankov96 1 1 day ago
    Good question.
  55. u/obeisantglitter_34 1 1 day ago
    Not really, they just keep adding stuff nobody asked for and calling it innovation. Most of the R&D money goes into these AI demos that never ship or features that get scrapped after two weeks like OP said. The marketing spend is insane too, they advertise basic updates like its a whole new product while the core tools barely changed since 2020
  56. u/149AssetManagement 2 1 day ago
    Sounds a value trap to me. aka original founders had vision and were able to see it through. Current management is in a quickly changing landscape and don’t have what it takes. I hear customs hate the product but basically have to use. So once something comes along that can do a better job, people will quickly and gladly make the switch
  57. u/Individual-Round2767 OP 2 1 day ago
    The thing is that even now Adobe products are industry standard and most of the revenue cones from enterprises. And they are quite sticky. But if layoffs happens in those enterprises because of AI then Adobe's revenue will fall as they won't need as much licenses. Also who knows in future AI might be able to do better tasks then Adobe products and you might never need them, you can just speak what changes you want to be made and it makes it for you, that is the other concern
  58. u/iyankov96 2 1 day ago
    Were you able to get any insight into whether Affinity,DaVinci Resolve or Canva pose a substantial threat to the Creative Cloud subscription ? From what I understand decades of muscle memory, feature availability, file compatibility and collaboration make it very challenging for an enterprise to swap to a cheaper alternative. A hobbyist might switch to Affinity to save money because the cost is not justified and they don't need all the bells and whistles of Creative Cloud but the big money is in the Creative Cloud subscription for enterprises. As long as they stay with Adobe their big revenue stream is fine.
  59. u/Individual-Round2767 OP 2 1 day ago
    So I am pasting this which i replied to someone else --> The thing is that even now Adobe products are industry standard and most of the revenue cones from enterprises. And they are quite sticky. But if layoffs happens in those enterprises because of AI then Adobe's revenue will fall as they won't need as much licenses. Also who knows in future AI might be able to do better tasks then Adobe products and you might never need them, you can just speak what changes you want to be made and it makes it for you, that is the other concern
  60. u/Sad_Pie227 1 1 day ago
    But sir that Adobe Photoshop 7.0 we still love 😂
  61. u/Quiet-Geologist-6645 1 1 day ago
    Sounds like a description of every large company from an ex employee 
  62. u/StyleFree3085 1 1 day ago
    Those baggers don't wanna admit the fact. It doesn't matter how much truth you tell them.
  63. u/DeadByOptions 1 1 day ago
    Bro, dish out all the insider info. Puts? Strike? Date?. Btw, fuck adobe.
  64. u/Continuity92 1 1 day ago
    Thanks for the post, though it does seem to describe any non-top performing corporate accurately, rather than Adobe specifically. Nonetheless, I’ve recently sold out of Adobe. The only thing you have to do is use the image editing function of ChatGPT for 30 minutes to see why it’s a value trap. The current level of sophistication of the ChatGPT product is the worst this technology will ever be. And it can already do to a large extend what you had to hire a graphic designer for even few years back. There’s no need for Photoshop for anything else than very niche applications by top end users. At the very least it would create a lot of pricing pressure for Adobe. I get the argument that corporates need to depend on content where there’s a clear copyright but even that would not sit with Adobe but an advertising agency or the client itself.
  65. u/pig_newton1 1 1 day ago
    I used adobe here and there and as a dev myself. It’s painfully obvious their software sucks. It’s a giant Frankenstein of ideas, has poor performance and is just hard to use.
  66. u/getmeoutoftax 1 1 day ago
    What I truly can’t believe about Adobe is that they seriously made “share text to WhatsApp” a default feature. Whenever you select text on Acrobat, this pops up. It can only be disable by editing the Windows registry. I have also noticed grammatical errors in their error messages. For those reasons alone, I have ZERO faith in their quality control, and the stock is not investable to me.
  67. u/Hi_Keyboard_Warriors 1 1 day ago
    Ex employee of TEAM (Atlassian) were saying same “things” about the company, fortunately I am up 200% since they all were moan about it.
  68. u/Individual-Round2767 OP 1 1 day ago
    Remind me what was the peak price of TEAM? I didn't say to invest or not invest in Adobe i just shared my experience and I also mentioned twice that I may be biased, what part of that you didn't understand?
  69. u/Hi_Keyboard_Warriors 1 1 day ago
    Well it depends where you bought it. For some people, It was great investment at $400+ and it was going out of business at $60. Employees don’t know more than janitors working there. Fundamentals matters in long run not vibes.
  70. u/Jrezky 1 1 day ago
    My question is less about what Adobe is doing wrong, but moreso what market capture they have ahead of of them. It feels like there are many other software applications that can do, at least individually, the things Adobe products do. Even free and open source. For example regarding Autodesk, I use CAD at work and at home, and the only reason we still use AutoCAD at work is because we have an old ACAD 2004 LT license that still runs on a 20 year old machine with Windows XP that we don't have to pay a subscription for. When that computer breaks, I'll be installing OpenSCAD or LibreCAD or nanoCAD or w/e. If we need anything complicated I'd pick Solidworks over Fusion360 anyway. I'm not a visual designer or illustrator or anything but like at home I use GIMP, or Blender rather than Substance. So my question is, was anybody there actually worried about their subscription model alienating past & future potential customers when so many alternatives now for products in their product line exist?
  71. u/Conscious_Battle6708 1 1 day ago
    question: do you mean PMs, or POs?
  72. u/DarthGlazer 1 1 day ago
    Just like Intel lol
  73. u/Disastrous_Rent_6500 1 1 day ago
    Okay so I guess nothing new. Just simple corporate bureaucracy
  74. u/momofuku18 1 1 day ago
    If you were still employed at ADBE, you might not have expressed the same view. You can rant about your experience and your interpretation of the company’s direction, but you cannot assess it objectively as a qualified investor who examines financials, competition, and especially the near future. I am sorry you no longer work there.
  75. u/Individual-Round2767 OP 1 1 day ago
    Right, that's why I said that "I may be biased" twice
  76. u/momofuku18 1 1 day ago
    I would have put that in the title
  77. u/sgaze 1 1 day ago
    Not sure which org you worked in, but this couldn't be further from my experience here after 10+ years. Sounds like you just have an axe to grind.
  78. u/BobLoblaw_BirdLaw 1 1 day ago
    Guys take a step back. Just think. You have 1000 companies to invest in. You have limited money. Why stresss over a stock so many people hate. Like dispise the company. The leadership. The product. The predatory tactics. And the fear of ai. Ok maybe you’re right and everyone else is wrong. Why not buy a stock for a company people love. Like do you guys love pain ?