Diesel Prices $6.28 (AAA) above 2022 Peak Levels: Will Russian Diesel Deal Make a Difference?

**Note:** Diesel hit $5.82 per gallon in June 2022 and settled below $4.00 before entering the Iran War. Since March 2026, diesel has climbed from $3.54 (monthly average in January 2026) to $6+ now. **\_\_\_\_\_** Diesel prices are soaring to levels above 2022, and continued supply disruptions threaten higher prices still. With Diesel already 75% above 2025 levels, an "unthinkable" move to $9 per gallon would thrust cost push inflation into PPI, and CPI, with its correlative and causal effects on global interest rates. Yesterday, President Trump announced a deal with Russia for \~36 million barrels of diesel to be released into the market by end of year, with the supply release to occur in stages. This follows an announcement that G7 was persuaded to release 100 million barrels. **Concern here is that we are dependent on shorter term measures to manage a worsening structural supply deficit.** Anybody see a way out here?

60 comments held Reddit says 39 on reddit ↗

u/OneNormalBloke 84 1 day ago

It won't but then it's more about you-know-who's family is going to benefit the most.
u/Mobile-Bar7732 31 1 day ago

And he gets to help out his buddy/employer Putin. Donald P. Trump - Russia's Employee of the Year, 2 years in a row.
u/Mexicangringo90 8 1 day ago

Lmao he got a employee parking spot with his name on it
u/trowawayatwork 11 1 day ago

Ukraine just blew up russian export port. I reckon it's a pay op to get fuel prices even higher so they can sell the little production at much higher prices
u/Severe-Squash-7493 8 1 day ago

I keep rooting for Ukraine! I was very happy when we all found out the cards were Uno Cards!
u/co-oper8 5 1 day ago

Its a perfect storm. Zelensky is going keep hitting refineries and the global supply pressure will keep increasing
u/samuelj264 10 1 day ago

The Russian diesel agreed to is about 2.5 days of US consumption, it will make no difference
u/Frustrated9876 2 1 day ago

And how much did those barrels cost? He says we’re getting the fuel, but it’s not free… we’re buying it from Russia. If we’re buying it from Russia at market prices, then it doesn’t lower prices.
u/[deleted] 1 1 day ago

[removed] — already gone when the archive first saw it
u/R50cent 20 1 day ago

It's a laughable amount. It won't do anything.
u/Upstairs_Baby8424 7 1 day ago

Gives Putin desperately needed money and also sets up the Trump admin to back out of the already dwindling support for Ukraine.
u/FloppyTacoflaps 6 1 day ago

Will it make a difference in the water level if trump pisses in your public pool?
u/Defiant_minddrug 7 1 day ago

Every day event it seems
u/coldandhungry123 5 1 day ago

Does it count as a deal if it supplies us with 48 hours of diesel?
u/PoulanWeedEaterBowl 6 1 day ago

It's not even just for us. I think it's just a release of sanctions so that the oil can go in the open market. That amount of diesel that Russia is going to sell is enough for the global oil use to be supported for about 18 minutes.
u/Wooden-Science-9838 1 1 day ago

FAFO America, Electric Bagaloo.
u/chaosxq 82 1 day ago

That is not the purpose of the deal. The purpose is to pass the blame to Ukraine. Then when Ukraine strikes Russias oil facilities which it has been doing for over a year US can claim Ukraine is the sole reason for high prices and working against the world’s interests. “Oh, we tried to get more Diesel but Ukraine stopped us”
u/peajammer 16 1 day ago

THIS ⤴️, right here.
u/koss1501 14 1 day ago

Fucking trump
u/peepee2tiny 3 1 day ago

But the only people who will believe it are morons....... Dammit
u/RadiantReason2063 1 1 day ago

morons
That's the one renewable resource that Republicans like
u/BlueBrye 1 1 day ago

The 30% of illiterates in the U.S. who support Trump no matter what. Everyone else knows what the administration is
u/makmanos 5 1 day ago

The numbers he announced are laughable. 300k tons immediately among the us and the world markets? There's something else behind this agreement and I don't think lowering Diesel or Gas prices is the target.
u/ManBearCave 3 1 day ago

Nope, it won’t make a bit of difference, it’s not even a day of consumption
u/Teeaak 3 1 day ago

Are Russia currently in the middle of a much worse diesel crisis than the US? Yes. So you will see about 2 thimbles worth of diesel
u/Frustrated9876 1 1 day ago

But they are in a bigger financial crisis and Trump just bailed them out.
u/Teeaak 1 1 day ago

Even if the agreement goes through 100% it's small fries. Not defending Trump BTW. It's an evil deal between to evil leaders.
u/GillaMomsStarterPack 2 1 day ago

Welp, just hours after the Russia deal was made Ukraine blew the diesel expo to shreds. It’s gone, just gone. “Fruitless deal” as Ukraine said on twitter.
u/CrowdedShorts 3 1 day ago

Short answer: no Long answer: nooooooo
u/Tea-Swiz 11 1 day ago

Russia doesn't have enough diesel for themselves, let alone to ship some out of country. This idea that this deal has any legitimacy is psychotic.
u/Redragontoughstreet 15 1 day ago

If Trumps asked Canada to ship a 4% increase of oil a month that would cover this 1 time Russian shipment. But it’s not about actually helping Americans. It’s about punishing Ukraine and helping his idol Vlad.
u/Academic_Banana_5659 1 1 day ago

The Ukrainian war will end with land concession to Russia. It's inevitable to the point the CIA said that was the case. America and western countries have supported them as much as is possible but unfortunately Russia still holds all the cards. If Russia wanted it could massively ramp up the war tomorrow, more troops, nuclear arsenal, more aggressive invasive force, Ukraine couldn't do the same. The fact Zelensky begs Europe and USA for help financially and weapon wise whilst Russia is supposed to be financially crippled (but clearly isn't) and doesn't seem to be struggling is very telling. Europe and USA cannot fund a Ukraine victory, they are simply buying Ukraine time and favourable negotiation power ahead of inevitable land concessiond to Russia.
u/Low_Butterscotch_594 10 1 day ago

The amount of diesel coming from Russia over the time of two months would barely last a week. It's a drop in the pan. Trump got played just like every fucking "deal" he's made. Served two purposes: ☝🏻looks good for his mouth-breathing moronic followers, ✌🏻adds fuel to the fire for Russia to explore war expansion. And we all know what side the US is on under Trump.
u/thisisblecki 1 1 day ago

it will last a total of 16 hours 😂
u/redditissocoolyoyo 1 1 day ago

No. That's enough diesel to last less than a week.
u/average_networkguy 2 1 day ago

No
u/SignalNNoise 2 1 day ago

Trump is manipulating the media with less and less impact. Saying words vs actual things like tankers being attacked or oil being delivered are impacting actual oil prices. Diesel takes time to make, demand for it will continue to rise as we get deeper into our crazy winter. Prices from deliveries will go up and feed back into diesel prices with inflationary pressure which Trump has no clue about. so no…. BS is BS
u/Guest_0_ 2 1 day ago

Russia has Diesel to export?
u/Severe-Squash-7493 3 1 day ago

Markets seem to still believe the lies. Just like the Potash "deal" or the Venezuela oil, everyone believed it for a moment and then prices went back up.
u/0o0o0o0o0o0z 3 1 day ago

No, Russia can't even supply its own domestic market -- let alone export it to the global market; it's all for show to try and blip the market. Kinda like Bassent thinking a 5-10bn quick flip would change the 27tr bond market... These are no serious people.
u/ramdomvariableX 3 1 day ago

Just US consumes about 3 million barrels a day, the Russian release when it happens will give ~13 day buffer, but it's to the world market. Russia is already dealing with shortages, so they will go for highest bidder / existing partners. For context US reserves are at lowest since 1983 (<300 million barrels) and still depleting. So reach your own conclusions.
u/[deleted] 1 1 day ago

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u/co-oper8 9 1 day ago

Uhh yes. The difference will be that the money will be used to fund a war against our (USA) ally that we are sworn to protect in a written treaty. And the whole world will watch as the US breaks sanctions and aligns with a ruthless dictator, bringing us closer to the role of ruthless dictatorship and authoritarianism. \--- *the cost is incalculable ---* And IMO the mechanics of global supply and demand will not shift much. We are still globally going to experience a drop in supply due to the straight of Hormuz AND THE US DECLINE IN REFINERY CAPACITY.
u/Difficult-Way-9563 1 1 day ago

Nope, it’s literally 2-3% of us use. Some financial reported did the math. All performative
u/RandomDudeYouKnow 1 1 day ago

Trump posted the numbers in tons because it looks big enough to make a difference. It won't. It's the barrel equivalent of like 19 hours of diesel usage in America spread out over a few months. It's a fucking joke that only the most idiotic will believe.
u/Scottdg93 1 1 day ago

So all his followers.
u/[deleted] 1 1 day ago

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u/Reaper621 1 1 day ago

It's a week supply, it's not going to do shit
u/Dull-Contact120 1 1 day ago

It would be funny if the RU oil killed the engines over here
u/crankenshtien 1 1 day ago

For less than a week maybe. Then we'll need more.
u/wirerc 1 1 day ago

As much "difference" as Trump's treasury intervention in the US bond markets.
u/[deleted] 1 1 day ago

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u/Wiangel8016 1 1 day ago

No it is only a month worth of fuel..
u/Frustrated9876 1 1 day ago

I mean…. They BOUGHT the Russian diesel… how much did they pay for it?
u/instantfaster 2 1 day ago

Buying diesel from Russia gives Russia more money to keep the war going. It’s why Ukraine blew up the refinery. Trump doing what Putin asks. Israel and Russia have something on Trump.
u/Benouamatis 1 1 day ago

Of course it won’t . Is there anyone who think it will?
u/[deleted] 1 1 day ago

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u/Aranda12 1 1 day ago

Does Russian even have diesel?
u/tritiatedpear 1 1 day ago

The Russian deal is to give money to Russia not to lower prices for American. I hope Ukraine burns down every depot they can
u/Academic_Banana_5659 1 1 day ago

Ukraine has just bombed the No 1 Russian Refinery after the deal was announced. So no, it won't make a difference, in fact things will probably get much worse.