Can ASTS actually compete with SpaceX long term? Let's be all the way real....

I think ASTS will be a m/a target for someone larger, who knows when or what price by then. I'm not sure asts is as strong alone than if they were brought into a larger ecosystem

ASTS feels like the kind of asset that makes more sense tucked inside a bigger balance sheet than fighting the capex war alone

The main reason they won't get acquired by anyone is the mnos and gov that partner with them won't allow it... They would end up in major legal battles to protect their access to a neutral third party rather than allow someone that might hurt their ability to compete to take over

I've not seen this in the ASTS subreddit in response to that the other day but this is a very good point.

Abel hold majority voting rights. So he would need to be convinced to sell.

Well they did just update their change of control severance policy for Abel and executives last week

Yeah, but that doesn't mean anything. Most likely just routine corporate cleanup.

I still need someone to explain to me why a satellite carrier would be better than a terrestrial MVNO with regards to speed. If you need SOS support out on a mountain then fine, but there’s no way you’re getting 250MB/s down in a city with a phone antenna.  If the play is to have terrestrial towers that relay to the satellites, again, what’s the advantage?

Right, we're looking at like 3M/256k service with 5G-NTN direct to device. A huge leap forward but still just a back up for your typical cell subscriber. I think a big part of the equation is IoT and other not-a-phone options where you can have a higher gain antenna and better service. That's what Sateliot is already doing afaik. Heck, this tech probably creates markets, for cheap, low power, relatively low bandwidth devices that aren't addressed by existing offers. My guess is that there's room for a lot of providers. I don't think there are too many providers that don't end up oversubscribed. 

ASTS is for the rural deadzones that are all over. The kind that drop a call of that you don't even realize you are driving through until you need service. Also natural disasters, wildfire connectivity, national parks, out on the lake, etc. Not everyone will subscribe and it definitely isn't for people who spend their whole life in their city.

Sure, that sounds like it would slot in nicely alongside typical network coverage as an add-on fee, but I don’t see ASTS going 30x from current prices based on that. I’ve never understood the valuation thesis.

What’s interesting is that those “dead zones” also apply to billions of people worldwide without access to expensive modern terrestrial networks. And this isn’t just talk and text, it’s broadband speeds directly to regular unmodified cell phones. The TAM in theory is massive along with other potential use cases like IoT and defense capabilities.

You are thinking US centric, but also 30x from here is not the thesis. I'm looking for around 6x. They can also use the sattelites as radar dishes, FYI. For global missile and drone tracking from space. Along with secure military coms. It's not just US deadzones.

It's not specifically about speed, it's about uninterruptible service no matter where you go, and the fact that spacex can serve any country that will allow its service rather than at&t serving America alone or Chinese telecoms serving China alone

ASTS has a place but the ceiling is quickly lowering. Was reading an article the other day arguing that SpaceX’s utility/space business has a strong floor at $120-130 not including data center/computing. This deal raised their floor imo.

No. Two years ago I had shares and sold for a large gain. However, I sold because they have zero testing, zero network in production and zero opportunity for shareholders who’ve waited years for service delivery only to be met with announcements of planned launches. This company is a scam and obviously cannot be trusted at this point. If you go to Midlands TX stop by their facility and give them the middle finger and a “fuck you”

Well damn 😂

tell us what you really think 🤣

Many companies’ management make forward looking statements all the time (hello, Elon). Doesn’t make them scam companies.

Then keep buying ASTS. Don’t let me stop you. I said what I said and Im right. This company has been lying for 5 years. But you know what they say about people who are gullible for years right?

Elon doesn’t compete for market dominance. He loves the development and will abandon strategic leads for the next technological step. Plenty of room for asts.

The last paragraph is where it will unfold, but DOJ and FCC along with the mobile carriers class action will dictate if this succeeds. SpaceX's **Starlink Direct-to-Cell** satellites are physically much smaller and lighter than ASTS's giants. They are designed for hyper-efficient mass manufacturing and rapid deployment via Falcon 9 and Starship rockets. **Silicon and Software Over Size:** Rather than launching a 2,400-square-foot mechanical array, Starlink uses highly advanced, smaller **phased-array antennas** packed with proprietary software-defined radio (SDR) technology. **The Original Strategy:** Initially, Starlink relied on partnering with T-Mobile to use T-Mobile’s mid-band PCS spectrum. This original setup was heavily hardware-constrained. It was designed primarily as a low-bandwidth safety net to support **emergency SMS texting and basic voice calls** in rural dead zones, rather than full-throttle 5G video streaming **Neutralizing the Spectrum Advantage:** ASTS's primary moat was its exclusive access to carrier spectrum. However, SpaceX completely bypassed this restriction by buying its own **nationwide 800 MHz and 2 GHz spectrum**. Starlink no longer needs to play nice with carriers; they have the airwaves to operate completely independently. **The Launch Monopolization:** ASTS relies entirely on rocket providers to get its massive, heavy BlueBird satellites into space. Because SpaceX controls the global launch market with the Falcon 9 and Starship, ASTS is essentially forced to pay its primary competitor to launch its hardware. SpaceX can prioritize its own Direct-to-Cell satellite launches, throttling ASTS's ability to achieve global constellation scale quickly. **The Virtualization Moat (Open RAN & AON):** As we explored, if Starlink integrates its network into a cloud environment like **Azure Operator Nexus**using **Open RAN**, they can bypass their physical antenna size limitations. Software-driven beamforming and intelligent handovers allow Starlink to deliver high-capacity urban data through ground towers, leaving their satellites to handle the rural coverage—rendering ASTS’s costly "giant satellite" architecture economically inefficient.

No