Can ASTS actually compete with SpaceX long term? Let's be all the way real....

It's a large industry. There's space for many players.

Ba dum tssss

The narrative for ASTS now is simple. There’s 2 things people aren’t realizing. 1. SpaceX will not be able to execute or set up the infrastructure 2. There are a lot of people that hate Elon and will never use the service. This gives VZ and T-mobile the opportunity to compete by partnering with ASTS. I hate the stock but I bought at 49 yesterday. It’s a very asymmetric trade hinging on Elon sucking at actually delivering which has always been the case.

How has this play gone historically for people betting against Elon “actually delivering”? No shade but just genuinely curious what drives people to have this view based upon what Elon has already built/delivered.

You’re comparing stock price to what he has said he’d deliver. No FSD No roadster No tunnels No semi No optimus No mars No hyperloop Looks like it’s going pretty good. Tesla’s also very down on the year and was even at one point down 40% right after last quarters earnings call when people admitted for a second this clown doesn’t know what he’s doing. Will be no different this quarter when it craters 20% again. I also want to remind “people like you” that he’s not a founder of Tesla, so yea he’s delivered pretty much nothing. Also it’s easy to bet against Elon, but not by shorting Tesla. Just long the companies that are actually doing what he said hed do. One of my largest wins and positions is in Google due to Waymo. If I could invest in BYD without an Adr I would do that too.

Haven’t they been delivering semis for years now? They just finished their new semi manufacture facility a few weeks ago too. Elon never tried to do hyperloop, he said from the beginning he would not try. They have several tunnels now

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-21/hyperloop-one-to-shut-down-after-raising-millions-to-reinvent-transit He took taxpayer money and used it as a distraction. Ofc he would never actually try since it’d be a direct competitor with… cars! Doesn’t mean he didn’t try, he just didn’t actually “try”. Because he’s a fraud, and that’s how defrauding people works! Have you ever seen a Tesla semi? I also have several tunnels in my backyard. They similarly do nothing, much like, if any, of the tunnels he has will never do anything.

That company wasn’t started by Elon, that was by Richard Branson/virgin.

You’re right. My mistake with hyperloop one. Both are scammers. https://boringcompany.com/loop https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files…

Again, Boring company loop (owned by Elon) isn’t Hyperloop. It is just their tunnel system, which disproves your original point because that shows how many tunnels they actually have (you implied they didn’t) Elon specifically said he just open sourced his concept and patents on it because he didn’t have time to try and make it work. Tesla Semi just started volume production, previously it was limited production while the factory was built. They still had delivered units though. Their new factory is targeting 50,000 semis per year, but it will take time to scale that up fully.

Yes, it’s not the same. The concept which is posted through both boring and tesla in no way shows that he never intends on doing it. https://thedailytexan.com/2026/10/08/elon-musk-proposes-austin-san-antonio-high-speed-hyperloop-tunnel/ This was posted yesterday. There’s a twitter link in there that I can’t link from Elmo himself. Yes, I agree with you that he knows it will not work. But the point is he will continue to lie about it and promise to try it without actually ever trying it. So if he doesn’t really intend on doing it why does he keep talking about it after 5 years? You said he said he admitted he has no intention of doing it, but just yesterday he’s tweeting about doing it? So which is it?

I guess my point was that in 2013 when Elon first talked about Hyperloop he specifically said he was not going to try and build it. He open sourced a bunch of his ideas and whatever and started a college competition for schools to compete building the tech.

That’s cool. Probably should stop lying about it after 10+ years on the regular though.

Has he been lying about it 10 years on the regular?

Luckily a documentary about the fraud just came out yesterday, so we can all watch it together while he crashes out this weekend.

Tesla semis exist and are being driven, no matter how much your hate for him wants you to believe it doesn’t

You didn’t mention anything he has delivered. Should we list those? Not impressed ?

Semi quite literally exist?

Tesla did well if you look at the long term stock performance since IPO. If you look at the 5 year, it underperforms SP500. Essentially, Elon's companies have been a good investment during the ramp, but a bad investment once they hit their potential. SpaceX went public overpriced, so we'll see how that compares to Tesla underperforming SP500 the last 5+ years. Elon "accomplishing" things is a good investment, but not when he has already accomplished most of the major milestones.

Why do you believe they won't be able to set up the infrastructure when they're already delivering with starlink, compared to ASTS being behind the curve. I don't like Elon, but I'd have to be delusional to not see the advantage he has.

I should probably rephrase it. They will eventually be able to set it up, but not in any realistic timeline or any he presents. Given unlimited time yes it will get done. SpaceX has other issues. Its credit default swaps are rising due to taking on debt in too many areas. I think the announcement was made due to the 120 day share unlock and they have no actual intention of doing any of what they said.

Its actually the other way around. In order to provide data to unmodified cellphones, spaceX needs to produce sats that arent out of the rough prototype stage yet, and launch them via a spaceship that also hasnt had all the kinks worked out yet. Thats even before you get into multinational regulatory questions and midband spectrum. Best case scenario, they’re a few years behind, while ASTS has a design which is currently being produced, and can launch on a number of current platforms in single or stacked configurations. Their biggest bottleneck is production currently, but the most pessimistic timelines still put them at beta service early next year, and probably full service within 2.

I don’t see where the market is for their satellites? I feel typical service providers work for most people. Where are they going to develop the revenue that makes it worthwhile for the average person? I’m not sure what I’m missing. I read some of the 10-k and it took a bit out of my sails and don’t see them changing the game, just adding to already good cell providers.

Sometimes companies take the hit to disrupt other companies. Take a look at the paramount wb merger. The amount that it cost paramount will never be recovered. They simply did it for control of CNN. Again, the bet is a legacy provider wants to retaliate against SpaceX. There is a lot wrong with ASTS itself as well, like using other competitors to launch its satellites.

There are more players in the zone than spacex and asts. Dinosaurs like at&t are hard to kill. It's not looking great atm, but you could have deduced that from the stock price.

The grain spectrum acquisition isn’t actually a large amount of spectrum. US, European, and Japanese MNOs have formed JVs to share spectrum as they partner with ASTS to provide service. This will allow ASTS to provide better coverage with their satellites. At its core ASTS has a better solution to the connectivity problem. The outstanding question for ASTS is if they can figure out their manufacturing. If they continue struggling to produce sats they will not be successful. Go check out the resources on the ASTS subreddit, they’re pretty detailed and highlight core technological differences between the two.

I wouldn’t say manufacturing is a larger problem than launch. They could churn out 25 more BBs and still be on the back foot since Falcon is being deprecated and New Glenn is still out of service.

How long term? Having zero political bias, nothing out of Elon's mouth ever delivers in time, but he DOES deliver given enough time. I like ASTS at this price for short to medium term swing, but the window of opportunity narrowed down for +10y horizon for sure.

Elon is still way more reliable than ASTS’ management unfortunately. ASTS is just a meme stock that got too far.

Bullshit lol. Hyperloop. FSD, Tesla roof. Sportscar. Boring Company. Robotaxi. Falcon 1. Dojo supercomputing. I could go on and on about things he hasn’t delivered. Actually name one thing he’s actually delivered when he said he would?

He delivered FSD, boring company, Falcon 1 (plus Falcon 9, Heavy, Dragon, Starship).. some of the hardest things on the planet. Big whoop they took a bit longer than expected?

Full Self Driving still doesn’t exist. Tell that to my neighbor who paid top dollar in 2016 for the future proof package who is still waiting and got told the car isn’t capable and never will be. Boring company did nothing. It’s now inactive. Falcon 1 had 3 disasters costing years of progress until the last one saved him. Flacon 9 had massive delays and problems. Where’s the roadster? Tesla roof? Solar City? Hyperloop? But we’re supposed to believe this time he going to deliver on time? What you’re saying is like watching the movie perfect storm again and again, saying “I think they’re going to make it this time!” LOL.

I’m guessing you’re a troll cuz you don’t know what you’re talking about. Drive a Tesla then come back and reply. It’s also not supervised in Austin. Boring company literally is still building tunnels and is active. What’s your point on falcon 1 having failures before success? Rockets are hard. Just ask NASA. Your standard is that it was supposed to work the 1st time? And they did it with 100 ppl. Now Falcon 9 is the most successful rocket of all time. And reusable. Would love to hear your reply on hating how they’ve been able to land them regularly. I bet you don’t even believe it happens. Tell me how it’s a failure and who else is doing close to them. Plz can’t wait.

and yet hes more reliable than ASTS who promised so much BS

when is the last time you tried fsd in a tesla?

It’s not FSD. That stands for full self driving. It’s not full self driving and you can’t rely on it. You want full self driving? Book a waymo 😂

Or a robotaxi? In the midst of scaling? Adding hundreds of cars a week in Austin?

You couldn’t have given a worse example lol. Robotaxi is supervised. They either have a driver or remote support. Waymo is fully autonomous and now does 500,000 rides per week. Robotaxi is invite only, available in tiny cities: Austin, Dallas and San Antonio. Waymo is commercially operating in Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami (and others). In fact Waymo has more cars in LA alone than the entire robotaxi fleet. Waymo now have their 2nd gen larger Ojai units in several cities. It’s kinda the perfect analogy; Waymo is ASTS and Starling is Robotaxi. One is so much further ahead it’s not even close. Serious question: do you actually look any of this stuff up before trying to form a woefully misguided comparison?

or remote support.

Like Waymo? This comment _will not age well_. I would wager you, if I thought you'd actually pay up.

You’re the one who doesn’t look stuff up. See above. And just because Waymo has more unsupervised cars now doesn’t mean that will always be the case. Also do u know the difference btw lidar and what Tesla is doing?

Dude, waymo does more unsupervised rides in LA alone that the entire fleet of robotaxi. Robotaxi isn’t even a commercial product where waymo has been for over a year in my city. You’re literally clueless.

Dude, we all know that. Waymo is further along in that. But that doesn’t mean it will always be the case. Unless you freeze time?

"Delivered when he said he would"

Uh oh, don't awaken the cult.

Nah, its a pretty common sentiment among investors (me included) that ASTS has fantastic tech that is hamstrung by mediocre management that doesnt fully understand how to scale up or competently run a large public corporation vs a private startup. I still think they’re going to succeed despite themselves, but they would do so much faster and with much less pain if they sacked scott, hired a professional CEO with stock option incentives vs direct shares, and Abel moved to a CTO role where he could shine working with the tech.

Great thesis.

This is the real answer. Best case scenario according to musk himself it’s 2030 before he has anything viable to compete with ASTS which will be operational next year even at current launch cadence. If you want the math, Musk has zero functional gen three sats. Literally none. Not even a working prototype. He will need 15,000 for coverage. Starship can only launch 60 sats (max) per launch and Musk is hoping he can do 70 lunches per year. Thats over 3.5 years of perfect lunches schedule even if he had 15,000 sats ready to go now. But he doesn’t have any. He doesn’t even know if they work. It’s more likely that Starlink will take 5+ years to get even half the number of sats needed. ASTS will own the global market by 2028. Everything musk is saying now is just more Hyperloop, Tesla Roof, FSD nonsense, because he needs the SpaceX share price to stay buoyant until next year when he and early institutions can fully cash out (they’re totally locked in for 1 full year).

At the current price it looks like a takeover target to me, the cheapest and fastest way to get its tech

I somewhat agree. I think the smartest thing musk could do is buy them out.

Space x's biggest advantage is access to cheap capital. That's it. They can do things others can't. It's basically an equipment leasing company right now with it's GPU anthropic deal.

How’s that working out with Hyperloop, Robotaxi, Boring Company, Tesla Roof, Roadster. He’s very nearly gone bust three times with Tesla alone and had to abalone projects because all the money in the world couldn’t make them viable.

This was addressed multiple times above .. but again, Hyperloop wasn’t Elons company. Boring company is still building tunnels. Maybe google it? Robotaxi just started and scaling. Go to Austin and check them out with your own eyes

It isn't a takeover target because Abel owns majority voting rights. So they need to offer a price he cannot refuse, which is a lot.

Negative , can not compete. Elons got deep regard pocket

Absolutely not

Infrastructure takes a long time to build. Spectrum is limited, and already divvied up — and MNOs have far more than SpaceX. The space is huge and can accommodate multiple competitors. AST has better tech — SpaceX hasn’t shown it has good enough satellite to cell tech. AST is a small company and can grow to be a larger company if they execute even on some of this. MNOs have to compete and AST is their only viable option, and they already have stakes in AST. SpaceX feels compelled to enable connectivity for robots & self driving cars long term so they feel they have to build the infrastructure, but until they do, ASTS will fill the gap with nice margins. So yes, both companies will succeed and all will do well. No need to think one versus the other.

Disagree. See my comment above. There is operate no way Starlink can have a working array before 2030 and that’s if everything goes according to plan and we believe everything Musk says. That’s at least two years after ASTS goes fully operational even at current launch cadence. Good luck at that point becoming an MNO.

I think you meant you agree with me. Infrastructure will take many years to build if SpaceX starts today. It took existing MNOs decades to build all that ground infrastructure. Satellites will take years to deploy, but I think SpaceX can move a lot faster there. The point is, ASTS has a major lead and structural advantages. They just need to execute. And hopefully they can speed things up.

No, SpaceX can’t move faster. The inferior tech that they don’t even have yet takes far more sats. 15,000 for an array. He literally can’t get the sats up in orbit before ASTS have been fully operational for over two years. He can’t magic up a fleet of starships that launch 24/7. That’s the big lie here. He’s bottlenecked until he fundamentally changes all his tech like buying ASTS and their bandwidth

So SpaceX lacks the direct-to-device tech for rural areas -and- the ground towers for urban areas. Building that will take a long time. At any rate, MNOs + ASTS is a good solution and a good competitor, and both SpaceX and ASTS can win over the long term

15,000 for a mid band array, they need a new design for the lowband which is why they are going to rely on femtocell deployment until they get there. But they can absolutely move faster than ASTS as well, they have better talent, better funding, and better leadership

Remeber. RoboTaxi was be delivered in 2017. 😂

Lololol

Also, you think if this Administration flips Democratic they are gonna be kind to Musk? Not likely.

Very true.

No

MNOs globally (even European, LATAM) got smashed on Friday they are going to need an alternative Also SpaceX branding is getting scrubbed from satellite offerings in tmobile, Telstra etc… I’m expecting they are going to be removed soon

In simple terms; One company is trying to fight every mmo on earth including regulatory and spectrum acquisition and will have to spend billions and billions to even catch up to provide minimum viable product. They need 15 000 sats using Starship. (Do not confuse Starlink home internet dish satellites for mobile starlink satellites) The other doesn't have to buy anything as their customers are the MNOs and gouvernements that will use their satellite( that can use all the spectrums) to extend their service. No friction, no heavy cap ex on terrestrial infrastructure, everything already exists, they literally just need to keep doing what they are already doing. They only need 45 sats and can be launched by every midsize and up launch Vehicle around the globe. The data stays sovereign and you're in full control while the SpaceX's doesn't. What we saw yesterday was blown out of proportion because they want to get 14mhz(which is still pending for approval) purchased at 3 times the price Grain got it for 2 months ago and they need to build the sats that supports it(which they don't have at the moment) and the terrestrial build out to support low band(which again is only 14mhz if the acquisition goes through). I say "only" because the 3 US MNOs have a combine of about 1000mhz which ASTS will use. That is why you could probably see this as a buying opportunity. And anyways, this is a large industry and for ASTS specifically, the phone side of their business is just 1 use case out of many. They literally got approval for gouvernement spectrum yesterday (that includes radar,iot,pnt,etc) and got 15mhz in brazil at the same time SpaceX reported they got their Brazilian allocation, but since ASTS sucks at communicating their winnings, everyone manipulate their narrative. I think asts should hire someone to better share the company information imho. And before someone says mnos will just ise SpaceX, many have tried and switched to asts because: 1-it sucked 2-they literally want to steal their users 3-instead of 50/50 revenue share they want 80/20 4- no control of their data 5- your data has to exit their network to enter spaceX's network with a sat that has to transfer the data to another sat every few seconds between every handoffs which creates problems for anything other than texting and then once a cellphone tower has a better signal, the data has to roll backwards which sucks for connections and battery life. With ASTS, the sat holds you for 8-10 mins between every handoffs and the data stays in the country. All that with no waivers given by the FCC (which Starlink has) since they don't bleed their spectrum all over the place. One last thing, size literally matters. It makes the whole difference with why asts huge tenis court size sats have penetrations vs Starlink car size satellite who doesn't. So even if they get to own low band, at their size it's like buying a Ferrari but you engine swapped a Toyota Corolla engine in it.

Is Starlink revenue a part of SpaceX?

Yes

I heard Starlink is gonna compete in cell phone coverage or something similar like that. Wouldn't that boost the SPCX?

Yes

I've never been dumb enough to buy a stock that directly competes with Elon Musk's ambition.

Been holding ASTS for a couple years.  Not many shares, just 15. But I've been deciding more that I prefer index funds so I just sold and bought VGT instead.  I've been using Starlink for 5 years and think that SpaceX can gain market share faster and more reliably.

This is like saying ISPs are doomed because Starlink exists. Do you think Starlink will put the rest of the American telecom companies out of business and everyone will switch to Starlink? No? Then ASTS has a market in the US. Because they're all partnering with ASTS for their satellite connection solution. They even created a joint venture to do so. Additionally, ASTS and Starlink combined have nowhere near enough compute power and bandwith capacity to handle the data demands of every person in the US. They work better as a supplemental solution to traditional cell towers.

This to me is their most. They are the only legi sat provider that the mno's have partnered with. So it looks to be starlink vs. Mnos's using asts as their sat backbone. To me that positions Asts in a great spot. Launch cadence and build efficiency is what to focus on now but unless there is a huge paradigm shift the future looks pretty bright for asts.

The airlines partnered with satellite internet companies. Until star link came along.

Starlink isn't trying to start a competing airline, and starlink is significantly better than the other options for airlines (right now)

I had a Nextel until the Razr came along.

Those are completely different situations imo. Starlink won’t put ISPs out of business because ISPs will 1) be cheaper for most people since cost of infrastructure is way cheaper and 2) have lower latency which is needed for many use cases. Sats will never compete with fiber on latency. ASTS versus starlink don’t have those tradeoffs. It’s going to come down to cost difference and SpaceX having the vertical integration means their costs likely can be way lower. I won’t pretend to know the details of their competitive advantage over each other, but if starlink offers same service as ASTS for 50% cheaper, it’s bye bye ASTS. SpaceX also will have lots of other revenues streams so they can play game of attrition much longer.

SpaceX only acquired wavelengths in the US, that might not be as feasible in other countries were telecom companies and governments have a tighter grip on their spectrum. ASTS customers are the telecom networks themselves, not direct customers. Hence I believe Retail telecom company + ASTS is much more convenient for people and companies as it covers urban and rural thoroughly.

I can see the stock Price cratering to sub 10 bucks and maybe rklb buying them out. Then rklb turns into another option

Asts will also likely get t-mobile now. It also has huge international mno contacts - vodafone, rakuten, etc. They are THE mno satellite connectivity supplier if Elon goes through with making starlink a mno.

No. Elon has admin privileges. Best they can hope for long term is a buy out.

I look at them just like I look at multiples in any space. AT&T, Verizon, and t mobile. Sam’s and Costco. American, delta, southwest, etc. It’s good for the market and economy to have multiple and have competitive markets.

Don’t forget Amazon’s Project Kuiper, Rocket Lab’s merger with Iridium Communications, and Spacesail in China. And then of course Apple’s connection with globalstar, skylo leasing capabilities from other satellites, and elveo mobile. There’s numerous players and a lot can happen in the next five years

Skylo is Ligado which is ASTS. Or at least part of Skylo is.

SpaceX is competing not with ASTS. It’s competing with the legacy big three MNOs. SpaceX satellite technology is years behind ASTS. Their satellites can only do mid band which can’t penetrate buildings or cars and requires clear line of sight with no storm clouds or trees in the way. ASTS supports low band which can penetrate storm clouds and buildings. ASTS satellites are 6.5 times bigger than Starlink. This gives AST the advantage of covering a much much larger area on earth. This is why AST requires A LOT less satellites for full coverage than Starlink. While SpaceX just purchased a sliver of spectrum for an insane $8 BILLION, AST will have access to almost all the spectrum the big three MNOs will give them.

No

Sovereign constellations will be huge for ASTS. I bought more ASTS shares at $48 yesterday and couldn’t believe I got such a good deal. It was $133 a few months ago.

The Grain spectrum is US-exclusive. The services they’re competing on are global, and ASTS has a huge leg up with regulatory hurdles outside of the US. The way Elon interferes in geopolitics, I think many of his potential markets are going to be very cautious about allowing him to develop telecom infrastructure.

If spaceX does everything right and perfect, they will have 20% of the US market. That will leave ASTS with 80% (at least) of just the US market. Not to mention Europe, Canada, Japan, and other countries. ASTS is the better option for sovereign countries. Why would a foreign country have SpaceX come in, price out their MNOs, and gut those jobs. ASTS is complimentary

anything is possible. look what happened to myspace

There are too many asts bagholders on Reddit for you to get an accurate picture from here

I like asts

my take here is that, unless you own your own launch capabilities, you wont be able to compete

no idea but large blocks of orders came in for november 20 $60 and $65 calls i think this dip reverses quickly

ASTS entire bull case is based on them becoming a monopoly or a near-monopoly in the D2D market because that market is not that big even the MNO carriers themselves say so, but that thesis is falling apart at the seams: \- Delays galore, promised 168 satellites by 2025, 45-60 by end of 2026, and they launched 7 so far. They need 90-248 to provide real service. They have manufacturing problems, quality control problems, launch problems. They're burning through hundreds of millions every quarter and will need to raise billions more. They have no means to launch their satellites and must depend on SpaceX who said they're not taking any new orders to launch their satellites. \- All future sales projections (and earnings) are based on making several dollars per customer, the more likely scenario with Starlink and Amazon Leo (and others) is that the real number is under 50 cents per customer and it will be a race to the bottom with two-deeply capitalized mega corporations and billionaire backers. No way they can win going head to head. \- SpaceX/Starlink is going to bundle a package that probably includes Starlink home broadband + cellular + GrokAI + FSD + X Premium or what have you that no carrier can compete with, they are likely to buy out or drive the telcos into the ground. Starlink is going to change the face of the telecommunications industry, not just for internet and broadband, but for AI and connectivity to cars, Optimus robots, IoT, edge devices, you name it. Starlink doesn't want that measly 2% that wander off the terrestrial grid every now then that ASTS is after, then want the whole pie. \- Nikola and Rivian tried to go up against Tesla and Musk, never a smart idea, one is bankrupt and the other probably on its way. ASTS will probably never able to launch enough satellites to offer service and earn money, and likely to face a similar fate. The company was pushed on retail by paid shills who had close personal connections to ASTS management (now those same shills are pushing crypto) who got in at $1-$2 and sold over $100.