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u/Odd-Web4113 1 day ago

$GRAL Discussion - Diversification away from AI trade

I am trying to ensure I diversity a bit into opportunities that are not just AI driven. $GRAL stock price IMO is ahead of itself in short term b/c of a favorable FDA advisory committee outcome last month that looks like it will clear the path for FDA approval early 2027. But looking at the potential over 3-4 years - this company could be doing 10mm recurring tests in 2030 annually and 5X+ the current market cap. * The Nancy Gardner Sewell Medicare Multi-Cancer Early Detection (MCED) Screening Coverage Act was signed into law this year and takes effect on January 1, 2028; and is set to allow for screening for anyone under 68 I believe. And, more importantly it allows for one test every year. * This is the the best in class right now in MCED space and has run 100,000's of samples. They also have a head start in industry and building out infrastructure to allow for education and testing to the masses. * they currently charge 995 per test, but b/c of the above law, Medicare will begin to cover prob by 2029 and allow ANNUAL screening. Even if price gets reduced to 500 - we can assume a profit of $200 to the company per test - 10mm\*200 = $2B earnings number. Assuming 20X - $40B vs current market cap of $6B currently. It is noted the company has no debt and cash burn lasts it through into 2030 in current state. * Other things to consider - Samsung made a $100mm investment last year into the company to allow for distribution rights throughout Asia, which I am not even considering. So, 10mm tests per year could easily prove exceptionally conservative * As suggested, I think it is may have gotten ahead of itself in short term and may prove choppy for 2027....but not when I look out 3-4 years for reasons I just mentioned, it appears to be a strong investment opportunity. Another play if you are more skeptical is invest in ILMN as they own just over 7% of GRAL * I welcome thoughts, but figured this could diversify my investments a bit.
5 comments held Reddit says 3 on reddit ↗
  1. u/[deleted] 1 1 day ago

    [removed] — already gone when the archive first saw it

  2. u/[deleted] 1 1 day ago

    [removed] — already gone when the archive first saw it

  3. u/[deleted] 1 1 day ago

    [removed] — already gone when the archive first saw it

  4. u/Indescribled 1 1 day ago
    Do you like GRAL more than BLLN? Seems related but a bit different and I don't hear anyone talking about either so I'm curious
  5. u/Odd-Web4113 OP 1 1 day ago
    I can't speak to BLLN as I don't follow it, but it is different as it focuses more on prenatal screening. But worth a look for sure. I need to learn more about it. I have followed GRAL for a couple years as it spun off of ILMN. The reason I really liked it was I think it is a test that will be heavily sought after as a screener to help people. It isn't perfect, but it can detect things that you otherwise don't have a real screen for...bladder/pancreatic, stomach...etc. Things you usually find when already showing symptoms. So, gives the population a chance to find and fix prior to it becoming terminal. Now the test isn't perfect, but exceptionally low false positives. So, if it is detecting something...then worth it to do follow on screens...etc. So, think good for the population. Investment wise, it is a game of patience, but it is setting up nicely as things fall into place with FDA approval, law coming into effect and then medicare coverage. I just see a huge recurring TAM for their business. Coupled that with $800mm it has in its coffers....it really won't need to do another raise. So, a lot of things to like and I think will truly be one of my more profitable investments as we fast forward to 2030. But, agree with you...small company and people aren't talking about it...but they'll start to....