What do you think of my port plan

My goal was to create a factor tilted total world etf that potentially meets or exceeds VOO in total returns with broader downside protection. The factors are momentum and value. I am tilted US 70/30. I used Gemeni as a sounding board and research assistant. SPMO, Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF,U.S. Large Momentum, 23.0% AVLV, Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF,U.S. Large Value, 23.0% VTI , Vanguard U.S. Broad Market ETF,U.S. Total Market Buffer, 13.0% AVUV, Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF,U.S. Small Value, 11.0% IDMO, Invesco S&P Intl Developed Momentum,Intl Large Momentum, 7.5% AVIV, Avantis Intl Large Cap Value ETF,Intl Large Value, 7.5% AVDV, Avantis Intl Small Cap Value ETF,Intl Small Value, 4.5% SPDW, SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US,Intl Developed, 4.5% FRDM, Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF,Free Emerging Markets Tilt, 3.0% VWO, Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF,Broad Emerging Anchor, 3.0% I have bonds as well, but focussing on my equities allocations here. This allocation will be in my IRA as well as brokerage. In my brokerage I will rebalance by addition to avoid tax events as much as possible. In retirement, by withdrawal from over performers. I've only been studying the markets for a couple of years so I value any feedback.

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u/[deleted] 1 1 day ago

[removed] — already gone when the archive first saw it
u/ResistElectrical2485 2 1 day ago

love the granularity here, but you're chasing a lot of moving parts with this many holdings. momentum and value can work against each other for long stretches so don't be surprised if the whole thing just tracks the market sideways for a while the US tilt is fine but that emerging markets slice at 6% is barely worth the paperwork. either bump it up to at least 10% or just roll it into your developed international funds and call it a day
u/Sudden_Way_5241 OP 1 1 day ago

Thanks for the reply. I wanted to have momentum and value because when one is up the other may be stagnant or down. If tech crashes I'd rebalance by buying more spmo and vice versa for value to maintain weighting. I don't mind the extra work in maintaining the allocations. I see it as a way to draw from whatever is overperforming in retirement rather than withdrawing from the whole. What do you think? I had Gemeni calculate the market weight of EM and invested accordingly. I went with two funds because while I believe democracies carry less risk (FRDM) I also don't know what the future holds and wouldn't want to have zero exposure to China and India (VWO). Appreciate the feedback!
u/sleezly 2 1 day ago

Ask your AI assistant how much company overlap there is with this mixture of funds to see how truly diversified you are. Does that weighting match your expectation? Then ask how closely that resembles S&P500.
u/Sudden_Way_5241 OP 1 1 day ago

There's little overlap aside from the broad market funds which were intentional. The one hole is midcaps. Since Oct of 2021 which is how far back the avantis funds go, the US portion of the portfolio would have returned 16%/yr compared with 13.5%/yr VOO and 12.2%/yr VTI My international holdings produced 13.6%/yr in that time also outperforming VOO alone. SPDW had a 10.1%/yr over that time. Combined, this port produced 15.3%/yr outperforming VT's 11.2% I had Muse do the calculations because it has access to necessary historical data.
u/sleezly 2 1 day ago

Sounds like a good mix then. Thanks for sharing the portfolio spread; it’s not easy to get a diversified portfolio.
u/Sudden_Way_5241 OP 1 1 day ago

It's still a work in progress. A couple folks gave me some other things to consider so I'm going to deep dive later this weekend.
u/gulfstream-intel 2 1 day ago

I like the intent, but I'd pressure-test the "meets or exceeds VOO with broader downside protection" framing — that part reads like having your cake and eating it. Value and momentum are fine factors, but neither is a downside hedge. Momentum has had notorious crash episodes, and value has gone through multi-year stretches of underperformance that tested everyone's faith in it. If you want actual downside protection, that's a low-volatility or quality tilt, not value/momentum. The other thing I'd check is how much of this is just the S&P 500 wearing a trench coat. With 23% SPMO + 23% AVLV + 13% VTI plus the international large-cap funds, there's a decent chance the factor exposures net out to something close to market beta with extra expense ratios and rebalancing headaches on top. Worth running the actual overlap before assuming you're diversified. None of that makes it a bad portfolio — AVUV/AVDV are solid, well-run funds. I'd just calibrate the pitch: the realistic expectation is roughly market-like returns with different tracking error and hopefully a modest long-run factor premium, not outperformance plus protection. And in the brokerage account, rebalancing by addition is smart — keeps the tax man out of it.
u/Sudden_Way_5241 OP 1 1 day ago

Thank you very much for your reply. I will go research the low vol and quality tilts. My concern is I'm 90% in VT (plus bonds). I want the ability to draw from overperformers in retirement while underperformers recover to stretch the lifespan of my funds. I thought if I broke the world into opposing factors and different baskets I might accomplish that. I believe tech will continue to rule the world, but not without some painful periods. The next crash is going to take a bite out of the index and v shape recovery is never guaranteed. I still have time, but not as much as I used to. I can see father time in my rear view now.
u/Excellent_Chard_6326 1 1 day ago

a couple years of studying and you already own ten etfs. gemini just says yes to whatever you paste in.
u/Sudden_Way_5241 OP 1 1 day ago

I actually don't own these ETFs yet. I'm researching a better way to allocate new funds as my retirement is nearly all VT. I am aware of gemenis limitations as well as my own, which is why I am here asking for opinions. Thanks
u/hymie-the-robot 2 1 day ago

everybody's going to beat the index with lower drawdowns. curiously, we never hear a peep from these people when things get ugly. simplicity is your friend. I would pare this down to four funds or fewer, and if you want any chance of taming downside risk, one of those funds had better be trend.
u/Sudden_Way_5241 OP 1 1 day ago

Most of my retirement is VT. I'm looking at allocating new funds in a new way to give beating portions of the index during hard times my best shot. I'm still at the drawing board! Which 4 funds would you recommend? VOO (or SCHX), AVUV, SPDW, AVDV?
u/hymie-the-robot 2 1 day ago

you're not going to tame drawdowns with all-equity. you need low or negative correlations, and we don't see this between any funds you mention. the answer is seen in funds like GLD, DBMF and low-duration bonds.
u/Sudden_Way_5241 OP 1 1 day ago

I do have bonds. I will consider gold and research DBMF as well. Thanks for your help!
u/hymie-the-robot 2 1 day ago

I am not a bond expert, but it looks to me like anything with significant duration, including BND, could be trouble. this paper explains managed futures (such as DBMF): https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/White-Papers/Understanding-Managed-Futures.pdf
u/Sudden_Way_5241 OP 2 1 day ago

This right here is why I came to reddit. Thank you, I'm now learning about managed futures funds.