Anyone here doing the big NFLX comeback run?

I've been consistently, albeit slowly, buying NFLX the past few months. I'm planning on buying another small batch on Monday and call that my final one for the time being. I've said that multiple times before though.

lol. No worries, I keep doing similar. :)

In for 103 shares so far. Been good to avg down (80 ish). Ima keep gradually adding cause I’ve heard both sides of the argument, and my thesis is still stronger than the opposition. Just my thoughts though. If there is a recession, streaming subscriptions gonna be the last to go as people stay home more again. Plus they’re hella profitable. Ad tier revenue coming in, sports viewing, international expansions, they’re not even close to current price imo. I think the market isn’t pricing it in at its real value.

I think we're headed back over the $80 mark in short order. At least it seems that way. Good luck!

I’ll probably hold for 10+ years, I’m holding till it’s at least 800.

I got a strangle on so for two more weeks just let it stay around 70

Sports sucks on netflix. I dont want to watch fake boxing or have to wait for one nfl game (christmas)

why does it come back

Not sure. Maybe for the same reason INTC and Gamestop did. Old companies that were held down too long and were overdue to run. Their earnings are always solid and think they're just way undervalued as it is.

you sound like a PhD in finance. You should invest everything you have.

In heavy, all in options though, so hoping it does pop back up, otherwise I’m cooked ..

It seems like a large solid run is building. Good luck!

TY!!

I have a small position of 1,000 shares averaging 69. If it rallies on earnings, good. If not, it’s only a matter of time. Picking up NFLX at ATLs is a no brainer.

Yep. Good price.

That’s a large position for some people lol

All time lows, are you nuts? $20 four years ago

Last two earnings were pretty disappointing, buying calls is an extremely aggressive bet that sentiment will suddenly turn soon. Could work for sure, but I would say that trade has negative expected value. A leap would be way better, or shares.

Sounds good, thanks.

It really it is a big discount from their ATH but I am not convinced by their growth model that heavily depends on raising prices and adding ads without their customers leaving.

I thought this months ago. Bought calls similar to you. A shit ton of them. I dont think sentiment has changed. The circulating narrative that NFLX cant retain/keep engaged its users is still very prominent. I dont believe theyve had any major releases since last earnings. I dont see what the catalyst would be in this earnings, their figures will look good as always (which IMO points to it as a value add for a long term play not a short term earnings play). I think the only thing that could serve as a catalyst is if they have added way more users to their ad/base subscription, and/or they show that they are crushing estimates on ad revenue. Even still, Im not sure the stock gets the big pop to $80 you are imagining. As much as I hate to admit it I dont think NFLX a growth company any more. The ceiling for their market cap is likely 2X from here at most. They already are all across the globe, competition is getting fiercer.

Been watching East of Eden (amazing stuff) last night. Ads every 10-15 minutes. Absolutely ridiculous experience. Been tempted to invest at this price but I would not be surprised if they start losing subscribers rather than gaining them...

I mean. If you have the ad-version, what are you expecting? I used ad-version of hbo max, Disney and prime video. Netflix surprisingly felt like was throwing less ad. Later just unsubscribed from the other 3 and switched to premium in Netflix without ad.

All the other services (Disney, Prime, Now TV/HBO) I use also show ads but the frequency of ads on Netflix is on another level. I think their algorithm got it's knickers in the twist. It's not once/twice per episode/movie but literally every 10-15 minutes. Needless to say won't be renewing and won't be investing either.

Even prime video was better for you? Coz that one is a nightmare for the ones who hate ads.

It is, in think those algos might work very different for some given your reply...

Only \~30% of their subs have the ad supported version. If anything I suspect we'll see people move from non-ad -> ad supported versions if they get too intrusive

I certainly won't. I might keep it for the sake of my little one (watching lots of Pokémon and other kids shows, zero ads for them) but only until she moves onto another platform (which she does every few weeks). As far as I am concerned they increased the prices and made their service worse. Talk about shooting their own foot.

It's definitely different for everyone pending budget, use, etc. I'm the opposite... I started paying for all my streaming services to remove ads. I even pay for a youtube premium subscription to get rid of ads there as I find ads to be insanely intrusive. The cost to removes ads from netflix is \~30c a day, which was worth it to me. YT for example, I realistically use \~2-3hrs / day (background while working). I'd happily pay 15-20c / hr to have no ads on it. The alternative is to see an average of 23 ads / hr. So it costs me \~1c to save myself from an ad. Many of my friends are similar. Raw numbers suggest that the average consumer takes a similar approach to me. My time is more valuable than that. I spend more for my lunch coffee than the cost to remove ads from all my subs combined

Interesting take and I largely agree with that sentiment. That said, I am a strong believer in protesting with my wallet when things are simply not acceptable (I don't mind occasional ads, but what I experienced past few days was really taking a piss). I'll keep an eye on the stock though, owned it few times in the past but never managed to make money off it. Maybe this time is different ;)

I have 0 exposure, so take my words with a grain of salt.

Far out optimist and I’m with you!

What positive news or tailwinds are you expecting in 30 days or less?

No, Too much competition and they raised prices too much

Only a month out? Way too soon

Are the people talking about it you?

Top blast the hell out of it

Only think I really worry about concerning NFLX is the economy. Streaming services will likely be the first to get cut by people tightening the belt, and all signs indicate we’re likely heading into another recession.

I have observed and experienced the opposite. Streaming is one of the last things to be cut when someone loses their job. If it's cut at all.

I think that used to be the case, but all the streaming services have raised their prices so much lately, it’s starting to feel more like a luxury. Just my opinion though; I’m selling calls on NFLX so biased.

I disagree, but I can see why you have this opinion. Hopefully neither of us have to find out who is right anytime soon.

If covid is any indication - when people come under financial stress they sit at home and don't spend any money. People need some type of entertainment tho... and streaming services are one of the cheapest forms of it. An entire month of netflix is literally cheaper than a single dinner from a restaurant, for one. And the netflix can cover the entire family.

I get HBO, D+, and Hulu for $9.99 a month for their ad tiers. It's usually $20 for the bundle but every time (& I mean every time) I go to cancel they give me 3 more months at 50% off. I have used this scheme all year, missed it once and paid full price 1 month. The value and amount of shows and movies I get from all 3 of those for $130 a year is amazing. I'll never go back to Netflix. Besides, last time I had Netflix was December 2025 for the Stranger Things final and it had nothing good to watch. Even the ST final season was horrible. Netflix doesn't make movies or shows, they make content.

Another reason I’m bearish Netflix.

RSI below 50, Money Flow below 50, Momentum below 50 and MACD is below oscillation. All weak signs! I would not touch this - it is a watch at best for favorable technicals.

After having Netflix for over a dozen years I canceled my subscription. It doesn’t have great content anymore

One thing to watch with 30-day calls into earnings is implied volatility crush: even if NFLX pops 5-8%, the IV premium baked in beforehand can eat most of that gain, so the move has to beat the options-implied range, not just be positive. If you believe the ad-tier and pricing story, shares or longer-dated calls let that thesis play out over several quarters instead of hinging on one print.

I've also considered diving in as the stock has been really beaten up. I'm more interested in LEAPs than short term options.

The thing about Netflix stock is even though it’s down 50 % from its all time high a little over a year ago, it’s still up 400 % from its 2022 low. Many consumer stock giants are bleeding these days. McDonald’s, Pepsi, Nike. Personally I’m betting on the one that’s been bleeding for the longest time because none of these companies will ever bleed out so any prolonged downturn is eventually going to be followed by some sort of a bounce or recovery. And so I went with Nike.

Zero moat, their shows suck and their politics are so bad it's become a meme. Then, at all time low consumer sentiment they jack prices and add advertisements. Fucking comical incompetence at this point. I wouldn't buy calls OP in 5 more years we'll look back at netflix as the yahoo of the streaming era.

I think you are getting very aggressive in a spot that looks very mediocre. It could go up but it could easily make new lows. Sentiment is bad and its unlikely the numbers improve to spark a change in that. I think this is the type of spot to leg into.

People under 20 don’t watch Netflix - and they won’t start. Long form TV/cinema is dying.

Buy shares, not calls

Everytime i say shitflix, it pops back up. So now its in the shit again, I bought leaps