Kioxia’s Memory Business Officially Surpasses Toyota in Profits, Becoming Japan’s Most Profitable Company.

A few months back, it was also the #1 market cap company in Japan but as they say, 祇園精舎の鐘の声、諸行無常の響きあり。 There's more to that but I'll stop there.

It is still up like 500% yoy.

The profit number is real, but it's a peak-of-cycle number. NAND earnings swing hard, and when I normalised Kioxia's margins to something mid-cycle my model gave about ¥6,300 a share against a price around ¥51,000, so most of today's price assumes the AI-driven pricing never rolls over. The balance sheet is clean and the operations are good (Piotroski 7/9), which is why I'd watch it for a pullback rather than call it broken. Past memory upcycles have tended to hand back a big part of the margin within a couple of years. I wrote up the full numbers here: https://waitingisthework.com/stocks/285a/?ref=reddit-c Disclosure: I run Waiting Is the Work, where this analysis and the methodology behind it are published in full. I hold no position in 285A. This is research, not investment advice.