Investment thesis for trading week 10/13 - 10/16

Investment thesis for trading week 10/13 - 10/16 It is always nice when things go as expected. SPY broke out to new ATHs and retested the broken downtrend line successfully. Thursday was a bear trap however. The surprise interest rate hike in India and OpenAIs "missed" revenue goal made bears pounce. Markets did not care and won't care! Next week earnings season will start and from a chart perspective we are set up for a nice rally. But remember: There are no good or bad earnings (fundamentals). The only thing that matters is how the market reacts to earnings (TA)! So let's see! From a macro standpoint Dems are still favored to take the Senate and House and it seems that Wall Street overall has now also moved on from this administration. There is no more blind support like the last 2 years. Divided Governments have always been good for stocks! Yields: TLT possibly showed us that yields are coming down. We shall see! The Iran situation is on the back burner for now. However Europe's stock market is really suffering. FEZ is only up 2.4% YTD. I don't expect any major good news but I continue to expect a grind higher into the end of the year/early 2027. IF we get an Iran deal, lower inflation data or extremely good earnings outlooks we have a chance of a rip roaring rally. Have a great weekend!