Investment thesis for 10/13 - 10/16

Investment thesis for trading week 10/13 - 10/16 It is always nice when things go as expected. SPY broke out to new ATHs and retested the broken downtrend line successfully. Thursday was a bear trap however. The surprise interest rate hike in India and OpenAIs "missed" revenue goal made bears pounce. Markets did not care and won't care! Next week earnings season will start and from a chart perspective we are set up for a nice rally. But remember: There are no good or bad earnings (fundamentals). The only thing that matters is how the market reacts to earnings (TA)! So let's see! From a macro standpoint Dems are still favored to take the Senate and House and it seems that Wall Street overall has now also moved on from this administration. There is no more blind support like the last 2 years. Divided Governments have always been good for stocks! Yields: TLT possibly showed us that yields are coming down. We shall see! The Iran situation is on the back burner for now. However Europe's stock market is really suffering. FEZ is only up 2.4% YTD. I don't expect any major good news but I continue to expect a grind higher into the end of the year/early 2027. IF we get an Iran deal, lower inflation data or extremely good earnings outlooks we have a chance of a rip roaring rally. Have a great weekend!

15 comments held Reddit says 0 on reddit ↗

u/Immediate-Run-7085 2 2 days ago

What about the 12th? Who are you and why do we care?
u/Chart-trader OP 0 2 days ago

Typo. Won't change it because you don't care anyway! 🤣
u/Immediate-Run-7085 2 2 days ago

You miss typed twice? Why should anyone trust what you say when you can’t even read a calendar
u/Chart-trader OP 0 2 days ago

So cool! Reddit needs more people like you! Thanks for pointing it out.
u/Chart-trader OP 0 2 days ago

The real reason is that if something happens Monday I can say I told you so because I only talked about Tuesday through Friday
u/Immediate-Run-7085 2 2 days ago

So even you don’t believe what you say. Got it
u/[deleted] 1 2 days ago

[removed] — already gone when the archive first saw it
u/AutoModerator moderator 1 2 days ago

Your submission was automatically removed because it contains a keyword not suitable for /r/investing. Common slang prevalent on meme subreddits, low effort platitudes, or derogatory political slang are not appropriate here. I am a bot and sometimes not the smartest so if you feel your comment was removed in error please message the moderators. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/investing) if you have any questions or concerns.*
u/Chart-trader OP 1 2 days ago

By the way I am pretty sure it is called mistyped and not miss typed
u/Kitchen_Clerk7358 1 2 days ago

you lost me at "no good or bad earnings only TA matters" like come on, price action dont exist in a vacuum also your dates are messed up, 10/13 is tuesday not monday
u/First-Discipline-599 2 2 days ago

There are no good or bad earnings, right up until the guidance cut lands and the chart just prints what the number already told you. FEZ at 2.4% YTD is a euro problem more than a Europe problem, European earnings have held up better than that index suggests.
u/Chart-trader OP 1 2 days ago

Yeah I mean any relief from oil prices and Europe could outperform for sure.
u/99-Watermelons 2 2 days ago

Since when did a few lines of dribble from a Redder become a thesis ?
u/Training_Area6210 1 2 days ago

Title says 10/13, body says 10/12. 10/12 is a Monday, so the body is the one that adds up, unless you skipped it on purpose because the bond market is shut for Columbus Day.
u/Chart-trader OP 1 2 days ago

It's a weird week. Hence the title is also weird. Does not change the content though.