PLTR: is this strategy right? Investing/trading debate

Hi all, I just wanted to share a strategy I’ve been following with PLTR lately, just so you can tell me what you think about it, what you would’ve done, or even learn about my ideas. I bought PLTR in July, 100 shares around $127 ($12.7k), just before the earnings. It was between 5-10% of my portfolio in that moment. Stocks like AMZN also behaved well after earnings, but spent the following weeks falling just to fill the gaps it left around $248 (even if I kind of saw a cup with handle, the movement didn’t continue reaching higher highs) . However, PLTR began to develop what I saw as a bull flag. At this point, around $170 it clearly began shaping a strong support, from which it could continue going up. This week, it flirted with all time highs, battling with the $200 resistance. I sold 50% at around that price. This morning, pre market, I noticed it was breaking the resistance with abnormally high volume, which led me to thing it could go even higher, but I just let it go with my $10k. So… Would you have bought more after the break out? You would have had technical reasons to do so but, fundamentally, the stock is again priced for perfection. I guess I will sell my full position if it reaches $220 (ATH) or $230 (new projection from Goldman that lit up the stock this week). Thanks for your insights!

16 comments held Reddit says 0 on reddit ↗

u/[deleted] 1 2 days ago

[removed] — already gone when the archive first saw it
u/jpers36 4 2 days ago

No, technical analysis is not the right strategy. Try fundamental analysis, or better yet passive investing.
u/Churuzel OP 0 2 days ago

Wow, how instructing. For your information, I always put fundamental analysis first. In the last two years, a bunch of decisions based solely on that made me lose so much money. Then I learned to have a strategy, a system combining fundamental and technical, and I optimized my profitability in a way I never thought I would. YTD I’m up 27% and hopefully going.
u/Immediate-Run-7085 1 2 days ago

Let me ask my crystal ball….
u/Churuzel OP 1 2 days ago

Thanks for your insight
u/HBCTIA 2 2 days ago

Only buy if you have conviction based on fundamental research that you've directly undertaken. Not technicals. Not pricey. Always question and retest your thesis. Size position according to risk appetite (adjusted Kelly criterion) and level of conviction relative to risk and other investment opportunities. DCA into weakness. Trim on strength (e.g. position doubles trim 10%, triples 20% etc) and then use that as part of your DCA funding pool. Never buy what you don't know. If you have no conviction based on deep and self critical research into all the evidence (probative and disprobative) then you will not stomach the volatility. I hold PLTR form below $40. It has beta 2 to 3 so, if the market tanks 30% PLTR can eadily fall 60% to as much as 90%.
u/Churuzel OP 1 2 days ago

That’s the traditional way to do it, but in the last 3 years I’ve seen that ‘buy and hold forever’ works less each day, as the market becomes so fast with tools like 0 DTE and algorithmic investing. Of course, I’m not saying investing in AMZN or GOOGL is not going to do well in the long term, but you can maximize gains with a bit of timing. Look at META, UBER, etc. I buy based on fundamentals, yes, but when the price starts to feel stretch (or when things look grim), I try to focus on technical analysis. Trimming just 10% on a 100% gain is too little. You’re gonna miss a lot of gains in the process so to volatility, macro, etc. Look at what PLTR did in the last months, falling to around $110 from an ATH of $207 (at market close). Just holding that (which I did in the past with other stocks) made you lose a huge amount of money.
u/Imnotsureanymore8 2 2 days ago

Fuck Palantir. I hope they go to zero.
u/SgtLincolnOsiris1969 1 2 days ago

Lol nerd
u/thorn960 1 2 days ago

Seems very overpriced. Priced for perfection? I would say it's overpriced for perfection. Forward P/E of over 80. Is there some sort of expected growth that analysts haven't taken into account.
u/Churuzel OP 1 2 days ago

I agree…
u/fourwedge 1 2 days ago

I wouldn't do anything on technicals and price action. Palantir is way overpriced and it wouldn't surprise me if it goes in half at any time.
u/Churuzel OP 2 2 days ago

I agree 👍🏻
u/Revfunky 1 2 days ago

This is where a trade plan comes into place. You define the trade and exit before you buy. You were right with the Bull flag formation. My TA relies on a trend,pattern, and a squeeze. If I have all three I have conviction in the trade. If I am trading I have a exit strategy attached. It looks like this: At 10%: If our initial recommendation moves up 10% from our entry price, we will shift it from a "Buy" to a "Hold". Initial recommendations will all come with a 25% hard stop. At 25% above our entry price, we will exit half the position and change our 25% hard stop to a 15% trailing stop. At 50% above our entry price, we will exit another quarter of the original position. The 15% trailing stop will remain. At 100% above our entry price, we will exit the remaining quarter of the original position.
u/Churuzel OP 1 2 days ago

Thanks so much :)
u/BuyTheDipWeekly 1 1 day ago

Whether to add on a breakout depends on whether your reason for owning PLTR has changed, not just on the chart. If the thesis is still tied to government and enterprise AI adoption and the numbers keep improving, reassessing position size after a big move makes sense, but buying a breakout without a plan usually works out worse than the chart suggests. Your 220 to 230 exit plan is a concrete rule, which is good, and I would also write down what would make you sell earlier, like growth slowing or guidance getting cut, so you are not only reacting to price.