1% Weekly Returns from Options Week 32

Just had my third assignment in 31 weeks - IREN 40 put. Including losses and drawdown, this is likely the most negative week in dollar terms but annualized returns are still good at 42%. This week was also mostly rolling. As predicted last week, this week was riskier and because of rolling, the premium collected this week was under the 1% target. Last week's post: https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/s/9u19OLBMnD If you want to follow me as I trade, I post to r/TheRaceTo10Million before placing trades and comment with trades as I make them. I post here after I make the trades with a full summary **Strategy** \- Use an AI screener to give me a list of top 20 low delta options for next week \- I either \- a. Roll my current options - I do this if I can still get 1% for rolling or if the option is ATM/ITM and I have to roll. I always roll for credit. \- b. Close a current option and pick something else from the list that I like \- I try to do this every Friday. However, if I'm busy on Fridays, I'll sometimes do this on Thursdays. \- If I get assigned, I will sell calls at assignment price. A lot of people have asked me about why I don't add a criteria to avoid earnings weeks. Like I sold HPE/IREN/NBIS etc. puts across earnings. Also APLD across earnings this week. That's because on earnings weeks the same delta strikes are much further OTM. Many people have also asked for my screener criteria. This is my exact prompt: find me 20 unique lowest risk puts to sell on stocks expiry: next week strike at least 8% from stock price return at least 1% sort by delta furthest away from stock price minimum strike price 10 Total Returns |Total Premium|$29,137.00| |:-|:-| |Current drawdown|\-$3,145.00| |Gain/Loss from Assignment|\-$4,665.00| |**Total gains**|**$21,327.00**| |Annualized (Calc1 using average invested)|42.97%| |Annualized (Calc2 using max invested)|30.58%| Today's Trades |Symbol|Action Details|Premium Collected (Net Credit)|Cash Occupied| |:-|:-|:-|:-| || |**AAOI**|BTC 2x Short 102 P, STO 2x Oct 16 98 P|$209.03|$19,600.00| |**APLD**|BTC 2x Short 21.5 P, STO 2x Oct 16 21 P|$43.03|$4,200.00| |**AXTI**|BTC 1x Short 74 P, STO 1x Oct 16 72 P|$49.06|$7,200.00| |**DRAM**|BTC 2x Short 59.5 P, STO 2x Oct 16 59 P|$56.12|$11,800.00| |**IREN**|STO 1x Oct 16 40.5 C|$16.53|$4,000.00| |**LQDA**|BTC 1x Short 30 C, STO 1x Oct 16 33.5 C|$54.52|$5,800.00| |**NBIS**|BTC 2x Short 227.5 P, STO 2x Oct 16 222.5 P|$318.08|$44,500.00| |**SLV**|No trade (holding Oct 16 65.5 C)|$0.00|$6,550.00| |**TOTAL**|—|**$746.37**|**$103,650.00**| Screener Output in the morning |Underlying|Company|Stock Price|Strike|Bid / Ask|Delta|OTM Distance|Return (Bid/Strike)|IV|Volume / OI| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |**AAOI**|Applied Optoelectronics|$115.56|$102.00|$1.20 / $1.50|\-0.157|11.73%|1.18%|96.5%|85 / 851| |**WULF**|TeraWulf Inc|$13.78|$12.50|$0.13 / $0.17|\-0.173|9.29%|1.04%|80.0%|5 / 514| |**WOLF**|Wolfspeed Inc|$31.19|$28.00|$0.30 / $0.52|\-0.180|10.23%|1.07%|92.0%|2 / 293| |**CIFR**|Cipher Mining Inc|$13.32|$12.00|$0.15 / $0.20|\-0.180|9.91%|1.25%|88.9%|15 / 16,507| |**ALAB**|Astera Labs Inc|$343.47|$312.50|$3.25 / $4.70|\-0.181|9.02%|1.04%|80.4%|20 / 27| |**APLD**|Applied Digital Corp|$23.04|$21.00|$0.23 / $0.30|\-0.181|8.85%|1.10%|78.8%|1 / 1,546| |**ASTS**|AST SpaceMobile|$53.37|$49.00|$0.54 / $0.69|\-0.190|8.19%|1.10%|75.3%|18 / 500| |**MRNA**|Moderna Inc|$205.74|$185.00|$2.40 / $4.00|\-0.195|10.08%|1.30%|97.5%|15 / 663| Historical Weekly Data ||Week|Capital Invested|Premium Made|Return %|Notes| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |3/6|Week 1|$0.00|$0.00|0.00%|| |3/13|Week 2|$13,100.00|$131.00|1.00%|| |3/20|Week 3|$19,850.00|$203.00|1.02%|| |3/27|Week 4|$41,500.00|$596.00|1.44%|| |4/3|Week 5|$34,150.00|$353.00|1.03%|| |4/10|Week 6|$43,350.00|$462.00|1.07%|| |4/17|Week 7|$53,800.00|$573.00|1.07%|| |4/24|Week 8|$70,400.00|$811.00|1.15%|| |5/1|Week 9|$103,450.00|$1,093.00|1.06%|| |5/8|Week 10|$97,400.00|$1,040.00|1.07%|| |5/15|Week 11|$102,800.00|$1,077.00|1.05%|| |5/22|Week 12|$98,600.00|$1,170.00|1.19%|| ||Week 12.5|$106,100.00|$475.00|0.45%|Bonus round| |5/29|Week 13|$106,100.00|$1,133.00|1.07%|| ||Week 13.5|$115,900.00|$336.00|0.29%|Bonus round| |6/5|Week 14|$105,750.00|$1,053.00|1.00%|| |6/12|Week 15|$110,700.00|$1,146.00|1.04%|| |6/19|Week 16|$111,850.00|$1,105.00|0.99%|| |6/26|Week 17|$108,350.00|$1,045.00|0.96%|Got SLV 65.5 assigned| |7/3|Week 18|$111,550.00|$1,126.00|1.01%|| |7/10|Week 19|$102,850.00|$1,111.00|1.08%|| ||Week 19 Bonus|$108,550.00|$98.00|0.09%|APLD 1:3 to avoid assignment| |7/17|Week 20|$104,350.00|$842.00|0.81%|| |7/24|Week 21|$111,500.00|$1,148.00|1.03%|RKLB 2:3 to reduce strike| |7/31|Week 22|$105,660.00|$1,021.00|0.97%|| ||Week 22 bonus|$99,960.00|$7.00|0.01%|ASTS 2:1 to reduce exposure| |8/7|Week 23|$104,850.00|$1,052.00|1.00%|| |8/14|Week 24|$95,850.00|$954.00|1.00%|| |8/21|Week 25|$99,300.00|$997.00|1.00%|RKLB 2:3 and NBIS 1:2| |8/28|Week 26|$102,500.00|$978.00|0.95%|| |9/4|Week 27|$104,800.00|$897.00|0.86%|| |9/11|Week 28|$102,700.00|$1,017.00|0.99%|| |9/18|Week 29|$101,150.00|$1,110.00|1.10%|| |9/25|Week 30|$107,700.00|$1,093.00|1.01%|LQDA 58 assigned| |10/2|Week 31|$105,850.00|$1,138.00|1.08%|IREN 40.5 assigned| |10/9|Week 32|$103,650.00|$746.00|0.72%||

26 comments held Reddit says 0 on reddit ↗

u/IdolizedFriendliness 3 2 days ago

42% annualized with three assignments is still cooking. you're basically getting paid to take the occasional punch that IREN wheel turn is clean, $16 credit on a $40 stock just to wait it out isn't bad at all
u/Enough-Beginning3687 OP 1 2 days ago

Would have been more. When I made the trade, I thought I got assigned at 40.5 but when I was reviewing it, it was actually at 40. So unless it goes over 40, starting next week, the calls will be 40$.
u/smart_pineapple 1 2 days ago

Do you only trade weeklies? Any specific reason for that vs 30-45 DTE?
u/Enough-Beginning3687 OP 1 2 days ago

yes, only weeklies. Lowest risk, most peace of mind and least management. All those 30-45 dte people want you to close positions and watch for stuff. Also returns are no better. Here's today's AI prompt & returns comparing them. Notice that to get similar returns the strikes aren't as far our as I would like. **Prompt**: I want to compare, weeklies, monthlies and 6 week options. So give me options <=7dte, <=35dte and <=49dte to sell puts on. The 7dte ones should return >=1%, the 35dte should return >=4% and the 49dte should return >=6%. Show me stock, current price and for each of 7dte, 35dte and 49dte - strike, %OTM, %returns. Pick 20 unique stocks which provide options with the lowest deltas and pick the furthest strike for each of those for every expiry. I usually do this with <=28 and <=42 but that didnt work because of expiry date of the monthlies. **Results** |Stock|Current Price|7 DTE Strike|7 DTE % OTM|7 DTE Return|35 DTE Strike|35 DTE % OTM|35 DTE Return|49 DTE Strike|49 DTE % OTM|49 DTE Return| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |**MRNA**|$221.37|$195.00|11.91%|1.00%|$170.00|23.21%|4.32%|$180.00|18.69%|6.67%| |**AXTI**|$68.71|$61.00|11.22%|1.15%|$55.00|19.95%|4.36%|$55.00|19.95%|6.18%| |**AAOI**|$111.33|$100.00|10.18%|1.10%|$90.00|19.16%|4.56%|$93.00|16.46%|6.13%| |**FSLY**|$29.82|$27.00|9.46%|1.11%|$24.00|19.52%|4.38%|$25.00|16.16%|6.80%| |**WOLF**|$30.46|$27.50|9.72%|1.20%|$25.00|17.93%|4.60%|$26.00|14.64%|6.62%| |**ALAB**|$340.25|$312.50|8.16%|1.01%|$290.00|14.77%|4.17%|$300.00|11.83%|6.03%| |**CRDO**|$216.15|$197.50|8.63%|1.14%|$190.00|12.10%|4.21%|$195.00|9.78%|6.05%| |**NBIS**|$221.11|$205.00|7.29%|1.01%|$195.00|11.81%|4.36%|$200.00|9.55%|6.10%| |**CIFR**|$13.28|$12.50|5.87%|1.76%|$11.00|17.17%|4.27%|$11.50|13.40%|6.52%| |**ASTS**|$49.79|$45.00|9.62%|1.02%|$45.00|9.62%|4.44%|$45.00|9.62%|7.22%| |**HIMS**|$30.85|$28.50|7.62%|1.02%|$27.00|12.48%|4.63%|$28.00|9.24%|6.68%| |**BE**|$278.40|$260.00|6.61%|1.07%|$245.00|12.00%|4.47%|$250.00|10.20%|6.26%| |**SMCI**|$41.68|$39.00|6.43%|1.08%|$36.00|13.63%|4.22%|$38.00|8.83%|6.50%| |**LITE**|$1,115.87|$1,040.00|6.80%|1.06%|$985.00|11.73%|4.10%|$1,020.00|8.59%|6.26%| |**COHR**|$310.31|$287.50|7.35%|1.08%|$275.00|11.38%|4.18%|$285.00|8.16%|6.07%| |**NVTS**|$10.70|$10.00|6.54%|1.20%|$9.50|11.21%|5.05%|$9.50|11.21%|6.42%| |**LUNR**|$13.29|$12.50|5.94%|1.52%|$11.50|13.47%|4.00%|$12.00|9.71%|7.17%| |**CRWV**|$82.21|$77.00|6.34%|1.10%|$76.00|7.55%|4.08%|$75.00|8.77%|6.20%| |**IREN**|$34.80|$33.00|5.17%|1.58%|$31.00|10.92%|4.84%|$31.00|10.92%|6.19%| |**APLD**|$23.56|$22.00|6.62%|1.36%|$21.00|10.87%|4.19%|$22.00|6.62%|6.77%|
u/Darren5531 2 1 day ago

Thanks for running the analysis! Given the 35 DTE % OTM is higher than than the 7 DTR % OTM, wouldn't that suggest the 35 DTE is preferable from an assignment risk perspective? If it isn't too much trouble, I'd love to see the data for 14 DTE. I've found weeklies to provide more flexibility for defensive rolls while staying within the range of reasonable theta decay rates. Does the model account for transaction costs?
u/Enough-Beginning3687 OP 2 1 day ago

While it is often more OTM (though not for all of them), it also has more time to go more OTM. Rolling weekly seems to be the less risky choice to me simply because in most cases if the stock starts dropping, you can roll lower in the following week. You can roll further if needed.
u/foulmeow 1 2 days ago

I’m getting some iren shares today too 😢
u/Enough-Beginning3687 OP 1 2 days ago

what do you mean getting, just roll? Mine were forced onto me.
u/foulmeow 1 2 days ago

i sold 36.5 strike puts so i'm in similar boat
u/Enough-Beginning3687 OP 1 2 days ago

just roll them to next week for a credit. Why take assignment unless you want the shares
u/Turbulent_End_6887 1 2 days ago

I sell puts on nearly all of these, but I go for .-05 to -.10 delta. I close when they hit 20-25%. I hate being assigned. Right now have shares of BMNR SMR OKLO and RGTI. SMR makes me nervous. BMNR follows coin, so I assume it eventually comes back.
u/Enough-Beginning3687 OP 1 2 days ago

Yeah I think so. I think other than my LQDA assignment, I'll be ok for the most part.
u/ThetaEdgeHQ 5 2 days ago

Worth pushing on the lowest risk framing a bit. Weeklies sit on the highest gamma part of the curve, so in the last day or two a small move in the underlying swings your delta fast. That is why assignment surprises cluster right at the wire. What you are getting is not lower risk, it is shorter time to resolution, which feels calmer but is a different thing. On returns being no better at 30 to 45 DTE, there is a real tradeoff hiding in that. A weekly pays you more theta per day, and that extra daily decay is the compensation for carrying the higher gamma. You also cross the bid ask something like 52 times a year instead of 12, so the transaction drag is real. None of that makes weeklies wrong, I just would not call them lower risk. You are being paid more per day to hold more gamma and trade more often. The low delta and 20 to 25 percent close that Turbulent mentioned is the right lever if assignment is the thing you hate.
u/Enough-Beginning3687 OP 2 2 days ago

Can you explain that in poetry form?
u/UpdateRequiresRestar 1 1 day ago

youve seen this right? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFaW9OENf8c Tom at Tasty talking about 45 days vs shorter timeframe. sorry for intruding but After eavesdropping on your convo I think this maybe the path Theta is taking thru the forest of the market
u/Enough-Beginning3687 OP 1 1 day ago

Look at this comment here with a comparison with real time data from yesterday: https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/s/oDne…
u/gosumage 1 2 days ago

This week I sold GRRR, AMPX, UMAC, and RDW. I broke even on the week buying back my GRRR puts after it went into freefall today. Very strange price action going on. No telling what is going to happen to it now. Probably deep pain. Too much risk to hold/roll now, took the loss. UMAC and AMPX puts expired worthless. AMPX $9 support is rock solid. I already own 5k shares of them, but wouldn't mind averaging up at these prices. UMAC price movement is looking scary. I see $16-18 as possible soon. RDW got assigned just below the breakeven price, but I think that's ideal for RDW as the calls will be juicy. I like them at 9-10. Chart does not look pretty though, it'll probably be a little choppy.
u/Enough-Beginning3687 OP 1 1 day ago

yeah things are getting too risky for the premium these days.
u/Earlyretirement55 3 1 day ago

I run and almost identical strategy, weeklies are the way to go. More than 7 days and you’re are a tweet away from disaster. Tastytrade DTE are a thing of the past, macrogeoplitical circumstances can change immediately and a lot of shit can occur in 40+ days.
u/[deleted] 1 1 day ago

[removed] — already gone when the archive first saw it
u/Earlyretirement55 1 1 day ago

Rolling my losing puts was wrecking my weekly P&L on the BTC, so now I just anticipate the assignment. If my CSP is >5% ITM on Thursday, I go ahead and sell a call early at my adjusted cost basis (under the put strike). Selling it in anticipation of getting the shares on Friday lets me squeeze out three extra days of weekend theta decay. It's working out great so far.
u/Enough-Beginning3687 OP 1 1 day ago

That sounds like a good strategy. I might try it out on other parts of my portfolio.
u/MrDerivatix 1 1 day ago

Rough week, but three assignments in 31 is still a good hit rate, and the ratio roll notes in the history table are more than most weekly posts give. One thing I'd push on is the premium vs. assignment split. The total nets out, but the per-name view gets lost. AAOI today was a clean roll, 102 to 98 for $209, which clears your 1% and buys $800 of strike. DRAM is the one I'd watch: 59.5 to 59 for $56 is $100 of strike reduction at 0.48%. If it keeps sliding and you eventually take the shares, that $56 stays under premium and the stock loss goes under assignment, so you'd have to walk back through the table to see what the chain of rolls on that name did on its own. What I've seen work is tracking net basis per ticker: current strike minus every credit collected since the first open, and on ratio rolls dividing the credits by the current share count so the per-share number stays right. That one number shows whether a roll lowered your risk or mostly moved the date. How do you handle it after assignment? Does the 40.5 call keep adding to the IREN basis from the put side, or does the stock start fresh for you? The two methods give different answers on whether the wheel on that name is net positive.
u/Enough-Beginning3687 OP 1 1 day ago

That's a lot of words. I wish you wrote that yourself instead of using AI. I really don't care about cost basis. The idea is can I realistically have close to 1% actual income (the weekly premium is assumed spent) when I retire. Do I need to backfill to get to the original principal, how many weeks do I need to spend less etc.
u/MrDerivatix 1 1 day ago

Fair point. I extended myself on a different matter. Coming back to your week's question, the $4,665 hole is about six weeks of this week's premium. But most of it is LQDA, down $3,060 from 58 to 27, and your 33.5 call caps the recovery there at a $2,450 loss if it rallies through. IREN and SLV can heal on a rally since the calls sit at your price. LQDA can't. That's the piece you should decide on before counting weeks.
u/Enough-Beginning3687 OP 1 1 day ago

Can you explain in poetry?