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u/Popular-Jackfruit-60 3 days ago Discussion

Earnings week watchlist, can't stop staring at TSM next Thursday

Stuff I'm watching next week. Expected move is the options-implied swing, not an analyst target fyi: * JPM, Tue 10/13 pre, ±3.59% * JNJ, Tue 10/13 pre, ±3.50% * UNH, Tue 10/13 pre, ±7.69% * ASML, Wed 10/14 pre, ±6.60% * TSM, Thu 10/15 pre, ±4.45% TSM is the one I'm eyeing hardest tbh. IV rank is 10, so options are basically on clearance going into the print. Last two quarters both closed red so everybody's kinda bored of it now. But AI capex is still THE story, and I just don't see them getting dumped on a "meh" quarter. ±4.45% feels low to me. I'm leaning long, probably some cheap calls, maybe a straddle while IV is in the basement. Worst case I'm wrong on direction but at least I didn't overpay for vol lol ASML reports the day before, so I'm treating it as the warm-up act. ±6.60% priced in and it's already up 1.59% going in. If the orders commentary is good, TSM probably gets a nice lift the next day. Just watching that one though. UNH is a hard pass for me. ±7.69% is wild, and it's dumped 20%+ on a couple of prints before. Too much of a coin flip, I'll watch from the couch. JPM and JNJ are just the boring ones. If you buy options there, IV crush is gonna eat you alive, so I'm skipping them. Anyone else holding TSM through earnings? or are you guys ducking out before Thursday?
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