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u/KumoPaper 3 days ago Discussion

Wait, OpenAI's $20B revenue gap is wild

That Thursday AI stock selloff looked chaotic. Phlx Semiconductor Index tanked over 3%, big names like NVIDIA, Broadcom, Micron all took hits, even Oracle dropped sharply. Turns out there's no actual $20B missing sales — it's just a messy accounting mismatch. People are counting cloud partner revenue differently between OpenAI and Anthropic, plus Microsoft's messy revenue-sharing deal adds more layers. Even OpenAI's still growing fast overall, Q3 run rate up 77% with enterprise revenue way higher. The real red flag here is how crowded the AI trade has gotten right now. Even a random accounting rumor can trigger a mass risk-off rush. The actual risk down the line isn't this headline — it's if top AI players' revenue growth actually slows, that's when the whole capex chain breaks. Keep an eye on Anthropic's investor day next week and OpenAI's formal clarification, folks. The AI hype's way more fragile than most people thought right now.
1 comments held Reddit says 0 on reddit ↗
  1. u/JustBrowsinAndVibin 2 3 days ago
    If anyone is wondering about why Anthropic counts it and OpenAI doesn’t, it’s because Anthropic keeps \~85% of the revenue that’s shared. Microsoft owns licenses for OpenAI’s technology so OpenAI only keeps 15% of the revenue generated by Microsoft. Whoever reported the $70B adjusted number (not OpenAI) was incredibly wrong to assume the two things are the same to adjust OpenAI’s revenue up. If anything they should’ve cut Anthropic’s revenue by 15% to be able to compare, not increase OpenAI’s by 40%.