From what page are you more likely to sign up for a webinar?

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These are too similar to really say which will drive conversions better. The blue one has a little more contrast and pops of color on the buttons and additional elements, which draw the eye more towards the buttons. However, it could come off to sales-y and turn off visitors. The darker, more muted one might be more sophisticated and let the "content" of the actual webinar drive conversion. If you were doing an A/B test on design, try experimenting with a larger difference between the hero area, imo.

its the pornhub webinar out of habit

Tbh it truly depends on the content and speakers. I feel pretty strongly that if those are interesting, the layout of the page matters less. One page won't "trick" me into signing up for something that sucks. HOWEVER since I know that's not helpful, lol, I think the bottom one is simpler without all the extra text under the CTA. I feel like there's only so much unique info you can cram on a webinar page, especially if you're at a company that starts promoting before you're fully done with prep and talk tracks etc. (which is common) However you might be missing the "speakers" section of the page, I find that helps drive registrants and the speakers are more likely to help promote too!

These designs are so incredibly similar you would need a huge sample size of data for this test to have any meaningful conclusions.

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based on ui? neither. split test headline and copywriting first before ui.