Skip to content
Archive
← r/StockMarket
1
100%
u/perspicacity_ai 3 days ago Discussion

Fed minutes say more hikes are coming but gave zero timeline on when

The September FOMC minutes confirmed officials think another rate hike is needed. They did not say when. The 10-year Treasury ETF is down 3.31% over the past month and the 30-year is down 6.15%, and the Fed has not even pulled the trigger yet. When the Fed leaves the timing open, every upcoming meeting becomes a live threat. Mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, and valuations on anything long-dated all stay elevated because nobody can price the ceiling. The market cannot relax between meetings the way it could when the Fed gave a clearer path. Long-duration bond holders are the most exposed here, sitting through losses with no date on the calendar to anchor around. Do you think the next jobs report or the next CPI print is more likely to force the Fed's hand on timing?
1 comments held Reddit says 0 on reddit ↗
  1. u/Crentstocks 1 3 days ago
    CPI, in my opinion. They've already said they think another hike is needed, so the question is just timing, and inflation is what they're trying to fix. A hot CPI print, especially with oil back above $100 feeding into energy and transport costs, basically hands them the justification to move at the next meeting. A jobs report alone probably won't force it unless it's really hot. A weak one might even buy them time. Where it gets ugly is if both come in hot back to back. Then I don't see how they wait. Agree on the open timeline being the worst part, though. The 30-year down 6% before a single hike shows the market is pricing in the uncertainty itself, not just the hike.