I crunched 36 years of HDB resale data + 5 years of private sales/rentals. Some myths don’t hold up.

I’ve been trying to decide between HDB and private, and got tired of hearsay (“freehold is worth 15% more”, “near a good school = premium”). So I pulled the public data and ran the numbers myself: * \~988k HDB resale transactions (1990–2026) * \~210k HDB rental records (2021–2026) * \~132k private transactions (2021–2026) * \~447k private rental contracts (2021–2026) Every comparison is within the same town/district × flat type × year, so location and timing don’t skew the results. Here’s what I found: **1. Floor level is the strongest factor** HDB flats on 19th floor and above sell for \~25% more psf than the baseline. Floors 1–3 sell for \~7% less. That’s a \~35% gap between high and low floors in the same town. **2. Freehold premium is much smaller than people think** Raw data shows 99-year leasehold condos priced *higher* than freehold, because many freehold projects are older. After controlling for building age, freehold carries only \~3% premium. **3. “Good school” premium is small** Distance to the nearest primary school has no consistent effect. Being within 1km of a GEP school adds \~2.2% for HDB. Real, but nowhere near the 10–20% you sometimes hear. **4. Rents have outrun prices since 2021** From Oct 2021 to Aug 2026: * HDB rent: +52.4% * Private rent: +40.6% * HDB resale price: +27.0% * Private psf: +24.5% Good for landlords. For owner-occupiers, the “monthly mortgage vs monthly rent” gap has narrowed. **5. Timing your lease can save a few thousand** * HDB rent is lowest in January and highest in December, about 9.5% apart in the same year. * Condo rent peaks in August and is lowest around May, about 10.6% apart. If you’re renting, the month you sign matters more than the month you buy. **6. Other bits** * Within 400m of an MRT: +4% (HDB), +5.5% (private) * Private psf is \~3.1× HDB psf right now * Building age hits condo rents hard: new vs 30+ years old differs by \~35%. HDB rents barely change after \~20 years. I put all the charts into a free site so others can explore: **aijia.sg** (English & Chinese). All the charts and analysis above are free. There’s a small paid tier (S$8.8) for an HDB/condo valuation tool and full Top 5 rankings for every town, which helps cover hosting. But everything in this post is viewable without paying. Happy to answer questions or run numbers for a specific town. Feedback on what’s wrong or missing is very welcome too. *Not financial advice. Based on public HDB/URA data.*