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u/someroastedbeef
3 hours ago
Crystal Ball Post
$TTD will be $20+ within a year
I've posted 2 predictions on this sub and they both turned out to be true
$DXCM to 90 when it was 60, a 50% return, which just turned out to be true today (took 8 months) - https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/…
and $PEN to above 300 within 6 months, when it was $180, a 67% return and only took a month. for those that held longer, it was eventually bought out by $BSX at $374 - https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/…
Now here's my next prediction and I have a sizable position to put my money where my mouth is
$TTD to $20+ within a year, which would equate to a 50%+ return
I've been watching on the sidelines and my lord this stock has had quite a journey. I remember years ago, this stock could do no wrong - beat after beat and the stock was trading at the most premium multiples and I always beat myself up for not getting in at IPO prices. Now, I have a chance to do that as I believe the company has been punished unfairly by the market and is trading at quite an attractive valuation today - that being said, they are still in the "show me" position, where they need to prove that these continuous quarterly misses and guidance lowerings are just a phase and not a permanent break in the business.
I don't think the open internet is going away - TTD is still a leader in this area and advertisers want neutrality, and that is TTD's main selling point. Yes, the competitive landscape has changed in the past few years and this has led to a significant rerating of the stock, due to growth deceleration and ultimately, a disaster print for Q2 due to the first guide of a revenue decline - which I suspect is a product of execution mishaps, not a break in the overall business.
I'm not an expert in the ad-tech business, surely there are some people in this sub that can lend me their wisdom but with experience in finance (valuation) and accounting, the fundamentals are too cheap to ignore. Based on my projections of $2.788 topline revenue for FY2026, growing 4% in FY2027 and then 6% in FY2028, etc, with gross margins of 74% today growing 3 basis points into FY2030 while keeping operating expenses mostly inline (I imagine there will be significant restructuring in these tumultous times so opex may go down significantly) - using a simple DCF model with a 10% discount rate, 3% perpetual growth rate and a 15x multiple, I believe fair value is ~$25, which would be a 93% increase from today's prices.
Keep in mind, if $TTD suddenly proves that this revenue mishap in 2026 is just an execution issue and suddenly growth reignites to even high single digits, we will see a massive rerating of the stock and can easily see $30+ again.
Position : 22,000 shares
https://imgur.com/a/YO3Bk5z