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u/someroastedbeef 3 hours ago Crystal Ball Post

$TTD will be $20+ within a year

I've posted 2 predictions on this sub and they both turned out to be true $DXCM to 90 when it was 60, a 50% return, which just turned out to be true today (took 8 months) - https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/… and $PEN to above 300 within 6 months, when it was $180, a 67% return and only took a month. for those that held longer, it was eventually bought out by $BSX at $374 - https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/… Now here's my next prediction and I have a sizable position to put my money where my mouth is $TTD to $20+ within a year, which would equate to a 50%+ return I've been watching on the sidelines and my lord this stock has had quite a journey. I remember years ago, this stock could do no wrong - beat after beat and the stock was trading at the most premium multiples and I always beat myself up for not getting in at IPO prices. Now, I have a chance to do that as I believe the company has been punished unfairly by the market and is trading at quite an attractive valuation today - that being said, they are still in the "show me" position, where they need to prove that these continuous quarterly misses and guidance lowerings are just a phase and not a permanent break in the business. I don't think the open internet is going away - TTD is still a leader in this area and advertisers want neutrality, and that is TTD's main selling point. Yes, the competitive landscape has changed in the past few years and this has led to a significant rerating of the stock, due to growth deceleration and ultimately, a disaster print for Q2 due to the first guide of a revenue decline - which I suspect is a product of execution mishaps, not a break in the overall business. I'm not an expert in the ad-tech business, surely there are some people in this sub that can lend me their wisdom but with experience in finance (valuation) and accounting, the fundamentals are too cheap to ignore. Based on my projections of $2.788 topline revenue for FY2026, growing 4% in FY2027 and then 6% in FY2028, etc, with gross margins of 74% today growing 3 basis points into FY2030 while keeping operating expenses mostly inline (I imagine there will be significant restructuring in these tumultous times so opex may go down significantly) - using a simple DCF model with a 10% discount rate, 3% perpetual growth rate and a 15x multiple, I believe fair value is ~$25, which would be a 93% increase from today's prices. Keep in mind, if $TTD suddenly proves that this revenue mishap in 2026 is just an execution issue and suddenly growth reignites to even high single digits, we will see a massive rerating of the stock and can easily see $30+ again. Position : 22,000 shares https://imgur.com/a/YO3Bk5z
17 comments held Reddit says 0 on reddit ↗
  1. u/SPAC_Enthusiast 1 3 hours ago
    Nostradamus? Is that you?
  2. u/MeesterWeen 1 3 hours ago
    What’s your stop? Are you staying in for a year if it never reaches $20 during that time?
  3. u/someroastedbeef OP 1 3 hours ago
    will need to see Q3 earnings, will be the biggest tell. this could be a prolonged deceleration of revenue and i very may well be a long-term bagholder. will have a more concrete answer by then but my strategy is to confidently call the bottom as that rewards the juiciest returns if right. i've been right more than wrong is all i can say
  4. u/MeesterWeen 1 2 hours ago
    Hmm how about your call 1 year ago on $CHGG to $6 within a year. If you’re going to claim you “haven’t been wrong (yet)” in other comments here, you might want to delete that one.
  5. u/someroastedbeef OP 1 2 hours ago
    haven’t been wrong in this sub ;)
  6. u/MeesterWeen 1 2 hours ago
    Fair enough. You pick a tough way to make money trying to spot trend reversals, so props to you for showing your positions, as others have said. Good luck to you
  7. u/Kemilio 1 3 hours ago
    Lmao, i sold this for $80/share when it was being shilled here last year.
  8. u/The_Confirminator 1 3 hours ago
    Did someone say transport tycoon deluxe?
  9. u/illmatication 1 3 hours ago
    Inverse Reddit, we staying under $20
  10. u/someroastedbeef OP 1 3 hours ago
    i love me some inverse reddit but unfortunately, i haven't been wrong (YET)
  11. u/alwayslookingout 1 3 hours ago
    I don’t know anything about this company but I appreciate putting your money where your mouth is.
  12. u/someroastedbeef OP 1 2 hours ago
    thank you, im afraid too many people make predictions in this sub with nothing to wager or proof of positions
  13. u/WorkSucks135 1 2 hours ago
    What exactly is the "open internet", and what does it have to do with TTD? 
  14. u/someroastedbeef OP 1 2 hours ago
    the whole advertising industry these days is primarily dealt within walled gardens - Google, Meta, Amazon etc - these companies both control the advertising environment and platforms that everyone wants to advertise, hence they are incentivized to keep advertising dollars within their own ecosystems in the old days, before these giants existed, an advertiser might use data from dozens of sources to identify those users and then buy ads across thousands of websites. nowadays, google will say "we know our users, buy ads from us" imagine you're a company with a $100m advertising budget Google will come and say to you - "give us $100m and we'll tell you how to advertise across google search, youtube etc. Meta will come and say to you - "give us $100m and we'll tell you how to advertise across facebook, instagram, etc" TTD will say to you "give us $100M and we'll help you decide how to allocate it across a huge variety of independent advertising inventory" - this could be websites like ESPN.com, new york times, random blogs, even reddit. this also includes mobile apps, podcasts, streaming tv etc
  15. u/spyapple 1 2 hours ago
    I also wrote post about this stock in same subreddit and I also was downvoted a lot. It just means we are doing the right think to buy this stock. I think it will go higher than 20usd though
  16. u/[deleted] 1 2 hours ago

    [removed] — already gone when the archive first saw it

  17. u/benjaminbutler47 1 2 hours ago
    The fundamentals are somewhat solid and the DCF model looks sensible. Im not an expert in ad-tech either, but I am currently long on ad tech business Verve Group media (VRV / M8G). From what I understand, ad tech is highly competitive, seasonal (elections, world cup, etc) the landscape is always changing (AI / LLM's) and regulations around data are getting stricter, every time you open a new website it asks you to allow tracking / cookies etc etc. A few % points in revenue growth every year in a market that's constantly changing isn't as attractive as it might initially look. If you like investing in beaten down stocks with high turn around potential and you are interested in the ad tech space, take a look at Verve Group media. They specialise in ID less advertising which gives them a solid moat, they are already anticipating a future in which websites will no longer be able to track your ID as a result of tighter regulations in this space. Profits have been low due to higher spend on unifying their business units into one AI powered platform, and debt is quite high due to acquisitions. Revenue is growing and margins are expanding now that unification expenses have stopped. They are currently listed in Stockholm but they are moving to Ireland (approve in AGM this year) to prepare for USA listing which will result in a re-rating, ad tech multiples are greater in USA than in Europe. The ID'less tech is real and they will have no issue getting the debt down to sensible levels. Any changes in the regulatory landscape towards improved user privacy only strengthens their moat. 2026 has been a solid year so far for VRV and the Q3 report is scheduled for 27th and this should be the first sign of them running with the momentum they've gains so far this year. NFA GLTA