MFBP Bancorp Inc. ECIP Preferred Arb

Interesting trade here for anyone into event driven/ special sits. Posting it in a few groups to see if I'm missing anything. M&F Bancorp Inc. is being acquired by Optus Financial Corporation for up to $53.30 in cash - consisting of $46.57 at closing & up to $6.73 contingent on the bank repurchasing certain preferred stock. The stock trades around $48, (traded much closer to the initial cash consideration up until very recently) so now you're paying about $1.50 for the contingent value. The transaction is due to close in Q4. That preferred stock is very likely the $80m Investment from the U.S Treasury as part of the ECIP. Interestingly, back in Jan 25, the company already announced in a PR that they had already entered into an agreement with the U.S. Treasury to repurchase the ECIP Preferred. And added to that they've even told us the discount! So, I think it's an interesting bet & in my opinion very skewed towards getting the full payment - even perhaps at closing! Of course, there's a risk that the deal breaks (I think very unlikely) or that Optus slow walk the ECIP redemption (also I think quite unlikely). That's it, in a nutshell. I wrote it up on my Substack. Happy to discuss / debate / take pushback. Cheers.