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u/Penelope123459
16 hours ago
Discussion
Is this AI hardware pullback worth buying?
I’ve been seeing a lot of people talk about buying the dip after NVDA, AMD, and a few other chip names sold off.
I’ll admit I’m tempted, but part of me wonders if this even counts as a dip. The SOX dropped over 20% in July, yet NVDA itself is still only a few percent off its highs and the index is still up massively on the year. One red day doesn’t make these names cheap, and a pullback from near all time highs isn’t automatically a reset.
Valuation isn’t a clean “cheap vs expensive” call either. NVDA’s forward PE has compressed to the high teens to low 20s, near decade lows, while AMD still trades north of 50x forward even after the selloff. So you can argue the hardware side of the AI trade is cheaper than it was, but that also reflects real concerns: capex payback, hyperscaler cash flow strain, and whether custom silicon keeps eating share.
My bigger question now isn’t whether to catch the bounce, it’s whether the spending story still holds. The four hyperscalers are tracking roughly $725B in capex this year, but free cash flow is already taking a visible hit at several of them. If they start moderating that spend into 2027, a low PE on NVDA won’t protect you from a guide reset. Everyone is watching the August 26 report for exactly that reason.
I have some cash ready, but I’m not sure this is the kind of pullback where you back up the truck. A small starter position or DCA feels more reasonable than calling a bottom after one red day, especially in names with beta above 2 where a couple more down weeks would test anyone’s conviction.