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u/EAForexLab 18 hours ago Charts and Setups

A backtest can look perfect — until you shift the data 28 years

I ran a simple robustness check on a Gold EA in MT4 and got a result that I think is worth discussing. The original backtest looked clean: high-quality tick data, realistic spread, and a smooth equity curve. Then I shifted the quote history by 28 years and ran the strategy again. The result changed dramatically. The equity curve became unstable and most of the apparent edge disappeared. That does **not** automatically mean the EA is fraudulent. There are other possible explanations. But for me, this is a serious robustness warning. If a strategy only works on one specific historical placement of the same market structure, I would want to know why before trusting the backtest. This kind of test can sometimes expose things like: * hardcoded dates or time-dependent logic; * excessive curve fitting; * hidden dependence on a specific historical regime; * parameters that are much less robust than the original backtest suggests. What I find interesting is that a backtest can still look technically “good” — real tick data, proper spread, no obvious modelling issues — and yet the underlying strategy may still be fragile. Has anyone here used **time-shifted data** or similar robustness tests for EAs? And what would you consider a reasonable explanation if an EA performs well on the original history but collapses after shifting the same data in time?
7 comments held Reddit says 0 on reddit ↗
  1. u/rforex-modtools moderator pinned 1 18 hours ago
    Price action and technical analysis cover a range of chart-based tools — from candlestick patterns and market structure to indicators and statistical methods for timing entries and exits. The community wiki covers both approaches and how they're used by working traders. Resources: **Price Action Analysis** | **Technical Analysis**
  2. u/[deleted] 1 18 hours ago

    [removed] — already gone when the archive first saw it

  3. u/Vizion400 1 17 hours ago
    The main question I would ask is : what is the base strategy ? for trending or ranging markets? If it was for trending then I wouldn't use it for ranging markets and vice versa Maybe have 1 EA for trending and 1 for ranging or something like that , keep it simple
  4. u/Relevant-Owl-8455 1 16 hours ago
    Backtesting is like learning how to drive a car using gta 5:D
  5. u/jrbp 1 15 hours ago
    Why would you care what happened in 1997 FFS 😂 it's a completely different market and not at all relevant
  6. u/mugiugilurker 1 14 hours ago
    Bro you tested a year from 2025 and a different year from 1997. Obviously the regime is different depending on the strategy what if 1997 it was a consolidation and 2025 it was a trend. I also have EA’s that perform well some years and don’t perform on others? I don’t even know what this post is actually.. seems like rage bait, click bait even by the title, lmao like what? And instead of testing it 2 separate years give us a large data set to truly trust the edge?
  7. u/STPtrading_EN 1 14 hours ago
    This is why walk-forward testing matters so much more than people give it credit for. A strategy that only works on one fixed window is basically curve-fit to that window, not actually robust.