Thinking about investing in $OUST

My biggest concern would be adoption speed, not whether the tech is cool. Lidar has looked like “the next big thing” for years. OUST still has to prove that all these pilots and design wins actually turn into big recurring orders.

I always smile when I see Lidar stocks. I did a lot of research a couple of years ago. Most except for HSAI are at or near historical lows. OUST only look good because people forget the 1:30 reverse split. They have improved their operations but I still doubt them as there are too many players and the technology still has shortcomings relating to signal degradation with age and various environmental condition affecting it. For me, it is stay away due to technology issues and too many players to know the winner.

I think that’s a pretty fair take. The reverse splits and the long-term price performance definitely make me cautious as well. From a planning perspective, I’d be especially careful with a sector where there are so many companies competing for essentially the same future market. Even if the technology eventually takes off, that doesn’t necessarily mean every LiDAR company will benefit. I also agree that the technology and real-world reliability are important things to watch. There’s a big difference between a promising demo and something that can be deployed reliably at scale and make money. For me, it would be more of a “watch the industry and see who actually proves themselves” situation rather than trying to guess the winner too early. There may be an opportunity eventually, but I’d rather see stronger fundamentals and a clearer leader before putting meaningful capital behind it.

I would push back and say ouster is different than the rest of the lidar companies. It's the front runner in digital/chip based lidar (with it's own upcoming software offerings and moat it's building). ie you're right about the crowded market and issues with the tech( it's been difficult to manufacture implement and scale because of how complex the actual mechanics and laser alignment is) But Ouster seems to have solved a decent bit of that with their design. As for signal degradation idk if there will ever be solve for that, but I'm not sure what better options there will be for capturing spatial depth data for the next long while.

Remember best tech does not always win, price does why Hesai may win. Remember Betamax, VHS was poorer both replaced by cheaper digital.

That's the thing, from my understanding Ouster tech is not just for creating a better end product for the customer, it was designed with internal operations and scalability in mind more so. The first thing of risk with traditional lidar and why it got shit on by institutions is there were massive gambles on manufacturing investment. Doomed if you outsource mfg because of mechanical complexity of traditional lidar and respective quality drops, doomed if you don't and spend(debt) god knows how much on western facility with spotty contract demand. And even if you do manage to get the manufacturing process right, you're locked into investment of legacy tech, essentially a bucket with dozens of spinning lasers. You take a hit on longterm moat. In terms of cost you're right. I think everyone in lidar is hoping AI capex will eventually get more involved. In which case price becomes less of a concern and best of breed takes 50+% of market (ie nvidia)

Good Luck if you invest as I stated - the segment is not for me until issues resolved.

Totally, just thought I'd respond and get some takeaways

I’m holding OUST too, but my average purchase price was $5/share when I got it in Feb 2024… Risky to buy after an exponential move like that

For sure it would be competition from Hesai and in house Lidars like what Waymo uses. There is basically no chance Ouster takes that big a market outside the US, Hesai can price their lidars at cost because they are supported by the Chinese government. And within the US I am not sure how big a market they can capture. If you have some insight here you can definitely take a position though.