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u/Safe-Chipmunk-4417 1 day ago Discussion

Brightstar Lottery heading towards solid Q3 earnings after promising Q2 report. Value incoming.

Market cap $2.06bn - ticker BRSL $11.22 SP P/E 8.65 (Google finance figures) This is my biggest holding, currently in profit. Averaged down massively at $10 a share. Firstly, (if you're in the UK) Brightstar lottery is incorporated in the UK and therefore you don't pay the tax on the dividend in an ISA, despite it being traded in dollars on the American markets. Currently an 8.2% dividend, which management have reiterated in their Q2 earnings that it's safe (and Q3 looks great so far, half way through). Ex dividend date is the 18th August, for $0.23 a share. Q3 jackpot environment: Mega millions was won at $800m (the highest jackpot of the year) Ticket sales are currently up on last jackpot reset run, which should translate into a faster rebuild time if the jackpot continues to rollover. Powerball is currently at $975m (entering crazy sales territory) I use lotto report to track the daily sales for this and mega millions, it's extremely effective. 95m tickets sold for the last two draws, compared to base sales of around 10m per draw. Super enalotto is at €208m (third highest jackpot in its history) Debt levels were lower than expected and with Q3 set to benefit from a great jackpot environment, it will free up more cash to pay down the debt. Cost savings have also improved, with the company expecting an additional $20m in savings above their target. New contracts are coming online for growth into new areas and also the lottery environment for euro millions is changing imminently, which will favour increased jackpots and surges in demand with a new price point and harder odds of winning. This is a fairly straightforward one to calculate for yourself, you can find the data for lotto sales and possibly come to the same conclusions as me. Higher jackpots = higher sales = higher amount of small wins paid = more people reinvesting into more tickets/scratch cards. The company is rapidly expanding a more profitable online presence that is showing strong growth in Europe and America. I've run the numbers on this one for months. Too much good happening, sales are naturally up for Q3 on top of the jackpot environment so it really is a case of research this for yourself now and grab the steady dividend while you wait. What else has happened? Powerball has let UK join the mix and now they contribute to the jackpots, shortening the gap between frenzy jackpot sales. The company bought back shares New CEO started July New contract extensions secured For those pointing to the debt levels as the reason for the drop, the company isn't near its highest historical debt level and the revenue environment is more profitable now as the company transitions to a leaner cost cutting outfit, but the share price is way down in comparison. I'm very happy to keep tracking this one and posting about it because things are going well right now, fortune is definitely on their side after an unlucky start to the year! (Luck in terms of jackpots being won early at low levels)
4 comments held Reddit says 0 on reddit ↗
  1. u/Visual_Ad_8332 1 1 day ago
    Nice find
  2. u/Safe-Chipmunk-4417 OP 1 1 day ago
    I hope so 🤞 don't understand anyone shorting at these levels and yet there are plenty. Especially as you can literally see the sales.
  3. u/LongQualityEquities 1 1 day ago
    Why do you never mention Italy? It’s half the business in one country and you never mention it despite otherwise great analysis and seemingly having the majority of your portfolio in this one stock. Not skeptical, just a bit puzzled.
  4. u/Safe-Chipmunk-4417 OP 1 1 day ago
    If you make an Italy specific post, I will read it, upvote it and enjoy it :) And yes, ~75% of my portfolio is now here. Jackpot environment is great for the short term and the structural changes make it a long term mathematical no brainer in my opinion. Mega Millions will go above $1bn one day and that'll be really interesting to see how the $5 ticket price effects demand at those levels.