$HTZ IM BULLISH, HTZ entering squeeze territory. CAUTION THROWN OUT THE WINDOW. - PT3

hey guys you may have seen my post the past couple days if so lets talk whats new. CTB SKYROCKETING TO 27.77% annualized. what that means is to open a short position it now costs them 0.076% per calendar day. or for every 100,000. about 76$/day. not crazy but combine it with that atrocious rebate and things get worse. All of that is good and dandy but heres where things get really interesting. Yesterday's ctb rate was 9.22% and despite that if you look at my second screenshot reported short volume is in the very high tens of millions. And then theres the elephant in the room, off exchange volume shot up to 8.18%. Typically the only reasons that occur is cause of 2 reasons: 1. dealer inventory management caused by the explosion in HTZ derivatives activity i.e delta hedging as they sold calls they now need to buy and 2. internalizing volume to suppress pricing. seeing the off exchange is whats got me bullish. This implies that the guard rails to prevent a squeeze are acting in overdrive!

43 comments held Reddit says 1 on reddit ↗

u/AutoModerator moderator 1 1 day ago

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u/InternationalJob7772 1 1 day ago

LFG! Holding until $3
u/Gayboy5713 1 1 day ago

I just bought 4000 shares will hold for a few weeks at least. Unless I make a million. lol I’ll pick up more on Friday when I get paid.
u/TheGameStopper 1 23 hours ago

You will need the share price to.hit 250.00 to make 1 Mil. Is it possible?
u/Gayboy5713 1 22 hours ago

Logical no possible only if enough get into it
u/TheGameStopper 1 21 hours ago

It happened to GME... lets hope for Hertz ![gif](giphy|fUQ4rhUZJYiQsas6WD)
u/Gayboy5713 1 17 hours ago

I think we all need our retirement accounts to be a a short squeeze so I can quit my day job. ![gif](giphy|LCdPNT81vlv3y)
u/Pizzaboy0511 1 1 day ago

I don’t know what this mean but I sold half my position at 2.6 (break even for me). Going to let the other half ride!
u/One_Trainer6005 OP 1 1 day ago

long and short is, shorting this stock is getting very expensive. But it'll depend greatly on what the short volume is today. If the securities show they are still crazy enough to keep shorting at this cost it could potentially lead to one of them failing to pay up causing them to close their short positions and increases the likelihood of higher prices.
u/Significant_Till_718 1 1 day ago

Hold!!!!! Its going to atleast 4 but im not selling my calls until 8
u/[deleted] 1 1 day ago

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u/[deleted] 1 1 day ago

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u/AutoModerator moderator 1 1 day ago

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u/rkshane 1 1 day ago

This dumpster ain't going to burn itself.. let's go.! HERTZ SO GOOD!
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u/Super-Activity-4675 1 1 day ago

That rising borrow cost and rising price are both pretty bullish for a squeeze. If this can crack $3 in the next day or two, I suspect the margin call/buying pressure gets a lot worse. Still think this is an attractive swing trade in this range, but the way it's gone up this morning says that a squeeze is definitely possible.
u/One_Trainer6005 OP 1 1 day ago

ya, i would not call it a squeeze yet, but the costs associated are pushing it in that direction. Lets get our swings in while we still can!
u/Super-Activity-4675 1 1 day ago

I agree there. I could see it moving to 4 under normal conditions, as that's where it traded when it crashed hard. I suspect some debt to equity holders will be more than happy to shed some shares at that point too, but... as of right now, it's a heavily shorted stock up around 60% in four trading days. That already is putting some margin accounts at risk, and the more that happens, the more likely shorts lose control. It's been pretty violent today too. Side note, max pain for next week's expirations is at 4. If the MM's managed to keep it pinned to around 3 this week, I'm guessing that's the best we can do.
u/DreCapitanoII 1 1 day ago

If they start converting their bond to here is before 2030 then they forfeit all the interest on the bond so I'm not entirely sure they would want to do that. Keep in mind that if they convert at $3.58 and immediately return the shares that's basically their break even point. The math on the arrangement is kind of complicated but even though they are short and have to return shares they actually still make money if the stock goes up. But if this actually goes above $5 it's entirely possible the equity holders actually do start converting and locking in profit on the trade. Also the best part is at all of those return shares go to the company, it's not even like to go back into the market.
u/Super-Activity-4675 1 1 day ago

I did not realize that... Guessing they start selling covered calls at some point then and collect premium...
u/Fijiboi2027 1 1 day ago

What’s ur pt ?
u/Super-Activity-4675 1 1 day ago

I'm pretty conservative with those, especially with a lot of debt that got converted to shares... at some point those shareholders will want their principle back... That's kind of what happened with BYND, and I have to think once it hits \~7, some of those shares are going to hit the market. With that said 5-10, and yes I'm being conservative, because even at $5 you're taking 2+x from last week. I'm really not in for that much (480 shares) and some $2 calls for next Friday. This is play money, not yolo money. That said, the weekly options chain is going to introduce some very nice gamma into this if prices hold or rise. At the current price, 8M shares change hands next week. There's another 3M sitting at $3 and another 1M or so between 3 and 4... That's a lot of gamma going into Friday for any naked calls. HTZ: Hertz Global Holdings Inc. Option Chain | OptionCharts. Next week's chain is downright silly right now.
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u/renegade2111 1 1 day ago

THIS WILL MOON. IT HERTZ DADDY
u/Ruzinus 1 1 day ago

This is risky but it's interesting. I bought a single share just to watch what's happening. Good luck guys.
u/MooDeng666 1 1 day ago

Let’s go 3$ next
u/BillyP42 1 1 day ago

Been in and out several dozen times since Thursday after hours, made a few grand. Seen this movie before, no matter which way it goes, I'm fully out now. GL to all!
u/Knightlife71 1 1 day ago

It will rip now because I sold my calls and bought puts.
u/G0D5M0N3Y 1 1 day ago

I mean in a squeeze scenario, you can have a few weeks of higher highs and higher lows. The only Calls anyone shoulda sold are the ones that expired last friday. Im still holding mid range Calls and Leaps.
u/infoisknowlege 1 1 day ago

Look at the options chains they're crazy right now some one opened a huge collar for January https://preview.redd.it/e1ddhl3z1sih1.png…
u/Super-Activity-4675 1 1 day ago

take a look at the next couple weeks...
u/infoisknowlege 1 1 day ago

This is what ai said. Looks like institutions are preparing for a jump to 3$ if volume and options keep going like this shorts will be forced to fully close over the next couple days. Looks like 2$ is support right now and if we close over 2.50 today I think we will see 3$ it higher end of week. Keep the pressure on!!!! https://preview.redd.it/tdm3nzrb2sih1.png…
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u/ithastogoupfromhere 1 1 day ago

holding with short term calls and leaps
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u/DreCapitanoII 1 23 hours ago

Are you having trouble getting into chart exchange? I keep getting a 504 error
u/One_Trainer6005 OP 1 15 hours ago

ya i was! odd timing eh? but alhamdulillah its back so we all good
u/antwon8797 1 18 hours ago

What does the last part mean for this?
u/Lootoholic 1 11 hours ago

I see so many similarities here with the original AMC play. That one went from $2 to $70 in 6 month of euphoric hype. I don't think this goes that high, but what if