Short TSM in 2027? A very likely invasion of Taiwan is going to happen soon...

[](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/?… been watching this scene closely and everything seems to be falling into place of too much coincidence to be... well, a coincidence. The US is running out of munitions with their war with Iran and this conflict unfortunately looks to be never-ending. Europe is also stretched thin with the Ukraine War ongoing. And with the Trump administration, I highly doubt they'll intervene in Taiwan even if it means the complete obliteration of the US tech sector (or maybe the admin is too dumb to even realize how important Taiwan is). So far only Japan and Philippines have signalled any kind of readiness to assist Taiwan in case a war breaks out but these countries have shoddy military power. Previous leaked US intel reported China is readying for an invasion in earliest 2027. Now also worth taking into account is that the Taiwanese election is happening in 2028 so China could push back to 2028 instead. Why? Because they can somehow rig the elections successfully or just bet on the KMT somehow winning, Taiwan is instantly gonna be their new puppet regime. But at the same time, the current predicament the US is in right now is also too good for China to pass up and there's no telling if the US can u-turn and recover somehow by 2028. My bet: Short TSM the very moment any news breaks out of China building up an unusual amount of military armada near the Taiwan Straits. The same happened when Russia was readying to invade Ukraine and the US was readying for war with Iran. TSM is most definitely gonna tank to oblivion if an invasion really happens so hey, might as well reap potential profits before the whole world goes to shit.

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u/Capital-Row6633 1 1 day ago

You really dont understand how things work. Invading Taiwan for China is straight up shooting its own foot.
u/Substantial-Fun9958 OP 1 1 day ago

Please educate yourself on the Taiwan Strait Crises. China has actually tried invading Taiwan multiple times before. They have more to gain than to lose here. And China has been smartly prepping itself to be extremely war resilient in the event of such a war. You can already see how untouched they were from the Straits of Hormuz closing.
u/Capital-Row6633 1 1 day ago

The only war i can see them having is through influence on Taiwan’s election. Even then its a long shot, like couple decades at minimum. Shorting a booming sector right now is plain stupid
u/Substantial-Fun9958 OP 1 1 day ago

They've already tried doing that repeatedly and it's been working somewhat but they still lack the majority influence. Half of Taiwan's youths, especially the millenials, are smart enough to not fall for the propaganda over Tiktok but most Gen Zs seem dumb enough to be falling toward China's side. The problem is China needs to weight whether it's better to use a golden opportunity as they see it now or wait too long for a result that may never arrive.
u/Capital-Row6633 1 1 day ago

Listen, while Taiwan still has goods that the semis will benefit from, there is likely a zero chance China will do anything. There is simply way too much leverage taiwan has in the market right now. You can obviously be a Burry and short it while every news source is screaming about upcoming shortages, but dont end up predicting 42 out of last 3 crises just like he did
u/Substantial-Fun9958 OP 1 1 day ago

You only need ask yourself whether it's US or China that will be hit harder by TSM falling. Also what if TSM doesn't actually fall in the end and ends up becoming used by China in some way? They say they have some kill switch but China could just infiltrate TSM and prevent it from happening. Anyway the initial shock of an invasion would just tank TSM from early investor reactions so it doesnt matter from a bet-wise trading strategy
u/[deleted] 1 1 day ago

[removed] — already gone when the archive first saw it
u/themrmu 1 1 day ago

He has 0 idea what he is talking about these are CCP talking points. He lives in the propaganda reality. Lol
u/Hampster90 1 1 day ago

We used to say the same about Ukraine, of course...
u/themrmu 1 1 day ago

Lol ok. Doesn't change the fact that this guy has no clue.
u/Hampster90 1 1 day ago

Well, no, he has a theory that seems farfetched. But I'd agree that the West has got little to cope with any such situation. One thing I wonder about is if a company/country that gets State takeover like that would actually have shares to trade in. China is pretty disconnected as it stands. What happens with such shares?
u/themrmu 1 1 day ago

Nothing, its like arguing if the northpole is going to get invaded by polar bears what happens to shares in Santa clauses workshop? It's a fantasy, a fiction concocted in the minds of reindeer. You see what I mean? But thats the whole point of this post to get people to engage with fantasy and sow fear in the minds.of the on lockers. That is the literal intent on this type of stuff. Either a useful idiot or a paid propagandists.
u/Hampster90 1 1 day ago

Well no, I'm raising a perfectly plausible scenario. Say you owned shares of a Ukrainian companies in the Donbas that are now under Russian control and disconnected from the global system, dafuq can you do with them? Where I'm going with this is shorting might be logical in a "the situation is going to shit" scenario, but I'm not entirely sure how one cashes in on it if it actually played out. Might as well short SNP.
u/themrmu 1 1 day ago

No you have to buy into an alternate reality first for the argument to be plausible.
u/Hampster90 1 1 day ago

I've just given a reality. There will be shareholders of companies in the Donbas and the Donbas has been invaded. Don't worry about it, it's clear I'd have been wiser raise the idea with... anyone else.
u/themrmu 1 1 day ago

No you first need to detach from reality for this argument to even begin to be question. You'd have to be living in marvel's multiverse to even start that conversation. We may as well talk about Santa's workshop. And thats the point you cant even see the fantasy so how can we talk about it. It like talking to a delusional schizophrenic about their voices in their head.
u/Hampster90 1 1 day ago

Russia has invaded the Donbas. There is nothing delusional about wondering what happens to shares in companies in occupied territory. You're just nonsensical and a polluted on Reddit (and presumably the internet more widely.)
u/themrmu 1 1 day ago

What are you even on about. I would have to buy into your premise but I dont, so if I don't buy your premise the rest is fantasy. so let's talk about Santa's workshop thats the same thing at that point.
u/Hampster90 1 1 day ago

Russia hasn't seized the Donbas? You're as boring as you are thick. (Extremely, since you clearly need things explaining to you). Thankfully, Reddit has a solution.
u/trustfundkidotaku 1 1 day ago

Unless China is Russian 2.0 they won’t do it anytime soon They simply don’t have the amphibious capability Don’t have enough landing ship for Taiwan at best a coin flip on kinmen
u/Capital-Row6633 1 1 day ago

Ukraine doesnt have the same level of leverage Taiwan does. No one could be bothered about ukraine when AI and capex is pumping. That was my point. Until that sentiment shifts, dont expect anything to happen
u/Hampster90 1 1 day ago

Perhaps. Mine was that questions of sovereign wet dreams have been underestimated in the past.
u/Capital-Row6633 1 1 day ago

Yet it is not the best indicator to short the booming sector after a sizeable correction
u/MetalCharacter8431 1 1 day ago

Really interesting idea, I'll follow it. Is there any good places to keep an eye at for news?
u/Substantial-Fun9958 OP 1 1 day ago

I don't think it's an idea. It's an inevitability staring us down in the face but it seems so many people are still in denial of it. I've been following world news and history all this time and one thing that I realized is that war truly never changes... because people keep repeating it. This isn't even the first time China would attempt to invade Taiwan. They've tried it thrice already. And everytime, it was because the US was too much a superpower in deterring them. Harry Truman once even had to threaten Mao with a nuke to stop him from proceeding with the invasion. But this isnt the case anymore today. The US is a hollow shell of itself and the world has been turned against the west by successful coordinated Russian/Chinese propaganda all over social media. Even the west is turned against the west itself. So many people in western Europe can't even fanthom Russia starting a NATO war yet we're seeing it slowly unravel. Putin has practically no other option than to go all the way with this war to the very end. His goal is to gain back all pre-Soviet territories. Xi Jinping's goal is to fulfil Mao's dream of gaining back Taiwan. And these are the leaders who'll be in power for a very very long time.
u/themrmu 1 1 day ago

He has 0 idea about anything, lives in a propaganda fantasy land.
u/trustfundkidotaku 1 1 day ago

OP is a regard who don’t even know how military works Lmao
u/themrmu 1 1 day ago

Exactly, the narrative makes absolutely 0 sense. And this 2027 timeline is even dumber in july of 2026 than it was in 2025 or 2024 or 2023.
u/Important-Sir-8750 1 1 day ago

You have no idea what you talking about. Taiwan is an island with 25 million people and has some of the best defensive fortifications anywhere in the world. An invasion of Taiwan will be the end of the CCP. They aren’t stupid.
u/Substantial-Fun9958 OP 1 1 day ago

And China has 1.4 billion people and like countless times bigger the size of Taiwan. I'm not sure why you need to keep bringing these excuses up. Countries have been invaded and taken over before no matter how 'impregnable' they seemed. All you need to know is Taiwan is the one ultimate goal for the CCP and that's ALL you need to know, to know the future.
u/themrmu 1 1 day ago

Lol more wumao fantasy land propaganda.
u/trustfundkidotaku 1 1 day ago

Check China amphibious capability wumao
u/themrmu 1 1 day ago

But even then it doesnt matter, taiwan has sea denial capabilities. Ukraine and Iran both proved you dont even need a navy to deny a greater power victory.
u/Professional-Sell136 1 1 day ago

Yep, it's the dawn of the drone era. Those landing craft would be sitting ducks 😄
u/themrmu 1 1 day ago

They wouldn't even leave the ports lol
u/themrmu 1 1 day ago

This right here, and taiwan has only 1 purpose to have a military and we train for exactly 1 singular conflict and we have sea and air denial capabilities that are uncomparable. There is no logic to invade taiwan and the CCP have already accepted that fact so they only have propaganda left. A conflict in the taiwan straight is not a survivable event for the ccp.
u/notenoughtortillas 1 1 day ago

The problem with that is that drone warfare has flipped combat on its head. And the number producer of drones will def be able to overcome anything Taiwan can throw at it in short order. That's not me being pro CCP, as I have no bone in the fight, it's just a factual statement.
u/NuclearPopTarts 1 1 day ago

Drones help the defender. China now has to account for getting bogged down by defensive Taiwanese drones: just like the Russians in Ukraine.
u/themrmu 1 1 day ago

Lol you have absolutely 0 idea what you are talking about. But hey wumao gonna fear monger.
u/mcad0o 1 1 day ago

An invasion has been imminent for the greater part of a century
u/themrmu 1 1 day ago

Exactly, but the ccp loves this narrative it serves them well and is kinda cheap to execute.
u/Downtown_Metal_7837 1 1 day ago

Don’t be a fucking idiot
u/Haunted_Rooster 1 1 day ago

Seriously, you have to be an idiot to short tsmc. They won't invade. What you failed and the rest of the world to understand is that it's all about economics. When the masses goes hungry, that's when shit happens. China needs Taiwan as much as Taiwan needs China. It's all about $$$$$$$$$$. There will NEVER be an invasion. It would basically be mutual self destruction.
u/Major9000 1 1 day ago

Taiwan will eventually join China of its own free will, the Chinese know this. They won’t have to fire a single shot. As much as China has drills and is building it military, it values stability above all else. It has also watched what a quagmire Russia has with Ukraine and the US has with Iran.
u/ltlouche 1 1 day ago

what is this junk post
u/Jegagne88 1 1 day ago

lol then bet on it. Bet on the thing that’s been “about to happen” for as long as i have been alive
u/yakuzademon893 1 1 day ago

The whole global economy goes to shit if China invades Taiwan not just TSM
u/Substantial-Fun9958 OP 1 1 day ago

Yep so it all balances out. In the end only winner is China. And they'll spin the narrative using Tiktok as usual to make all the Gen Z somehow support them invading Taiwan
u/yakuzademon893 1 1 day ago

“Only winner is China” You literally just agreed that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would send the entire global economy to shit, then somehow concluded China would be the winner. China depends massively on global trade, energy imports, foreign markets and functioning supply chains. A war over Taiwan would absolutely destroy China’s economy to sanctions, capital flight, disrupted shipping and trillions in lost trade. And the moment you brought up TikTok making Gen Z support an invasion, I knew you hardly had a brain cell to spare. What an absolutely moronic comment.