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u/JohnnyDrama611 1 day ago Stock Analysis

Bed Bath & Beyond spent $9.55 billion buying back its own stock. Eleven months later it filed for Chapter 11.

Total buyback spend across 14 fiscal years: roughly **$9.55 billion**. Early on this was a legitimately strong retailer. Gross margins in the low-to-mid 40s, operating margins in the mid-teens, an Altman Z-Score sitting well above **5**, deep in the safe zone. Then two things happened at once. Long-term debt shows up on the balance sheet for the first time in the quarter ended August 2014, at **$1.5 billion**. That's the same fiscal year the company spent a record **$2.25 billion** on buybacks. Gross margin had already been sliding about a point a year since 2010. The company started borrowing to keep the buyback pace going in the exact year it hit its highest spend ever. Here's the year-by-year, buyback spend against total shareholders' equity: * FY2010: **$95M** buyback, equity \~**$3.65B** (start of the window) * FY2015: **$2.25B** buyback, the peak year, equity still solidly positive (same year debt first shows up) * FY2019: **$148M** buyback, equity positive but thin, operating margin turns negative for the first time at **-0.7%** * FY2021: **$332.5M** buyback, equity **$1.28B** * FY2022: **$589.4M** buyback, equity **$174M** * Q1 FY2023, May 2022: **$43.0M** buyback, equity **-$220M** (first negative-equity quarter) * FY2023 final quarter: **$219K** buyback, equity **-$2.80B** (buybacks essentially stopped) By the time operating margin first went negative in February 2019, the company had already spent a cumulative **$8.58 billion** buying back stock. Buybacks slowed after that but never actually stopped. **$1.10B** in FY2016, then **$547M**, then **$252M**, then **$148M** by FY2019, dropping every year but never to zero. In May 2022, equity had just crossed negative for the first time in the company's history and operating margin was **-9.1%** and getting worse. The board still authorized **$43 million** in repurchases that same quarter. Within one more quarter the Altman Z-Score, which had sat above 5.0 for most of the company's history, dropped to **3.44**. Basic shares outstanding had fallen from **257.8 million** to **79.6 million** over the buyback era, a **69%** reduction. In the final two quarters, share count went the other way, up to **90.7 million** then **97.1 million**, as the company started issuing new stock just to raise cash. A program built to return capital to shareholders ended by diluting the same shareholders to survive a few more months. Bed Bath & Beyond's real problem was a retail business getting outcompeted by Amazon and hit hard by the pandemic. **$9.55 billion** over 13 years also isn't obviously reckless for a company that size, plenty of healthy retailers run buyback programs of similar scale relative to revenue without going bankrupt. The buybacks didn't cause the collapse. What they did was remove the cash cushion that might have bought the company another year or two to actually fix the business, right when the business most needed it.
37 comments held Reddit says 0 on reddit ↗
  1. u/City_Standard 1 1 day ago
    This is a scenario where AI falls so very short You need to actually spend some time to look into this... or continue being ignorant and lazy
  2. u/Weldobud 1 1 day ago
    Here is one question about buybacks every investor should ask: What are the chances that the companies stock are the best value in the market at the moment they buy them back?
  3. u/JohnnyDrama611 OP 1 1 day ago
    I actually got some feedback on my last post, which was about SBC and buybacks, asking to add what the stock price was for each buyback. Still working on putting that one together.
  4. u/Imaginary_Manner_556 1 1 day ago
    And they should ask if buybacks are really just cover for excessive stock-based compensation.
  5. u/Monster213213 1 1 day ago
    Should of just bought stocks in Amazon
  6. u/godisdildo 1 1 day ago
    I always wondered why more businesses in traditional industries didn’t use their surplus to invest in obviously stronger and more profitable publicly traded businesses.
  7. u/pandadogunited 1 1 day ago
    Because if the shareholders of those traditional businesses wanted to own those public businesses they could just buy shares themselves.
  8. u/godisdildo 1 1 day ago
    Yes ofc, fair - but it just seems so redundant to waste your cash on a dying business. They could always sell their Amazon stock later when they actually have a good strategy to spend it on, or liquid it and give it out as a final dividend if they’re going to phone it in anyway, instead of burning it up on principles.
  9. u/pandadogunited 1 1 day ago
    That would require execs to admit that they can’t do anything to fix the company befoe the company goes insolvent. Once they do that, they’re out of a job, the share price craters, and their performance based pay is probably getting clawed back. Unless they’re major shareholders, execs are incentivized to keep the party going as long as they can or jump ship before it sinks.
  10. u/godisdildo 1 23 hours ago
    *“Their performance based compensation..”* Ding ding ding
  11. u/leverupbud 1 1 day ago
    why didnt they pay down some debt instead?
  12. u/JohnnyDrama611 OP 1 1 day ago
    It didn’t really show up until they started doing buybacks.
  13. u/haarp1 1 1 day ago
    didn't they issue those bonds to fund the buybacks?
  14. u/thri54 1 1 day ago
    They didn’t have a lot of traditional debt. They had a lot of leverage through leased stores and working capital liabilities, but there wasn’t much in the way of debt they could be paid off for a guaranteed high return. Ultimately management thought they were mid turnaround and picking up their stock cheap was better for shareholders than shoring up their balance sheet, and they grossly miscalculated.
  15. u/JohnnyDrama611 OP 1 1 day ago
    Good points, thank you
  16. u/SomeAd5121 1 1 day ago
    That is exactly what Kodak did.
  17. u/mrmrmrj 1 1 day ago
    Many Boards of Directors are filled with thoughtless jackasses who just do what the bankers tell them. The groupthink on boards is incredible.
  18. u/JohnnyDrama611 OP 1 1 day ago
    Yea, have to wonder if they do not have the best interests of shareholders in mind. If they do not… run.
  19. u/NewRefrigerator5693 1 1 day ago
    Wasn’t this one of the stocks Reddit thought was going to be the next GME?
  20. u/mrmrmrj 1 1 day ago
    Yes. Everyone thought the buybacks would save the company. Analytically, the buybacks were irrelevant. After 2019, chap 11 was inevitable, just a matter of time.
  21. u/NewRefrigerator5693 1 1 day ago
    Whenever I missed the GME boat and magically there started being all these other “boats” to jump in, I just ignored them. Thanks for clarifying.
  22. u/mrmrmrj 1 1 day ago
    A great balance sheet will not save a business that cannot generate profits. The balance sheet just delays things, maybe provides an opportunity to change the business.
  23. u/b_fellow 1 1 day ago
    IIRC Ryan Cohen owned 10% of the company and wanted them to sell or spinoff Buy Buy Baby. Board said no so he got out and the meme pump died.
  24. u/SignificanceFine3582 1 1 day ago
    There’s a small group of crazies convinced that it’s *still* going to be the next GME. Over on the subreddit named after Ryan Cohen’s children’s books they keep believing that stock will make them rich. Yes, the stock that was wiped off the face of the earth three years ago after the collapse of a company that no longer exists.
  25. u/Blacklistedb 1 1 day ago
    Same with GME 😂
  26. u/AC1colossus 1 1 day ago
    I cannot emphasize enough how much executives in general defer agency on their decisions and take whatever recommendations from consultants.
  27. u/AC1colossus 1 1 day ago
    I cannot emphasize enough how much executives in general defer agency on their decisions and take whatever recommendations from consultants.
  28. u/SomeAd5121 1 1 day ago
    Can this business continue without a suitable business model?
  29. u/Melodic_Mixture_5081 1 1 day ago
    Temu killed them
  30. u/SaltyUncleMike 1 1 day ago
    No mention of retail apes schlobbing Cohen's knob throughout this debacle?
  31. u/SaltyUncleMike 1 1 day ago
    No mention of retail apes schlobbing Cohen's knob throughout this debacle?
  32. u/accountinreddit 1 1 day ago
    am I the only one who sees that this has nothing to do with buybacks. Even by OP's admission and last paragraph this is pretty normal and nobody did anything wrong on that. They just missed the boat on innovate on business model and carve a profitable enough niche. So can we stop calling
    Bed Bath & Beyond's real problem was a retail business getting outcompeted by Amazon and hit hard by the pandemic. $9.55 billion over 13 years also isn't obviously reckless for a company that size, plenty of healthy retailers run buyback programs of similar scale relative to revenue without going bankrupt. The buybacks didn't cause the collapse. What they did was remove the cash cushion that might have bought the company another year or two to actually fix the business, right when the business most needed it.
  33. u/TheDonHenly 1 1 day ago
    It's almost like they spent their money on buybacks RATHER than spending it on innovation....
  34. u/accountinreddit 1 1 day ago
    am I the only one who sees that this has nothing to do with buybacks. Even by OP's admission and last paragraph this is pretty normal and nobody did anything wrong on that. They just missed the boat on innovate on business model and carve a profitable enough niche.
    Bed Bath & Beyond's real problem was a retail business getting outcompeted by Amazon and hit hard by the pandemic. $9.55 billion over 13 years also isn't obviously reckless for a company that size, plenty of healthy retailers run buyback programs of similar scale relative to revenue without going bankrupt. The buybacks didn't cause the collapse. What they did was remove the cash cushion that might have bought the company another year or two to actually fix the business, right when the business most needed it.
  35. u/Resident-Banana-7883 1 1 day ago
    by design. butchered just like sears, block buster, toys r us, the list goes on and on
  36. u/SomeAd5121 1 1 day ago
    When the business model is already flawed, can buybacks solve the problem?
  37. u/us1549 1 15 hours ago
    They knew they were dying and returned the last of their cash to shareholders