I trade for a living - why I’m still bullish into CPI and the levels I’m trading on SPY, QQQ, oil and DRAM

The market continues to consolidate and grind higher despite the escalating rhetoric between Iran and the US, with Iran now declaring that the Strait will not fully reopen until 2029. The prices you are seeing already reflect a large part of this risk. as the market is no longer pricing a quick normalisation, with the odds of Hormuz traffic returning to normal before year-end now predominantly negative. The headlines sound extreme, but quite alot of bad news is already in the price. https://preview.redd.it/1gnul37xcqih1.png… On USO, $130 remains the main resistance, while positioning exposure drops off above $140. From current levels that is a little over 9% higher, but remember that oil becomes a much bigger problem above $100 per barrel, as this is where rate repricing usually starts getting more aggressive. https://preview.redd.it/1q5cm20ycqih1.png… As I am seeing some recession talk on social media, I am als osharing some models on recession probability in the US and as you can see it's at 12%. This model f uses a single economic indicator to forecast the binary outcome. This is by no way a perfect model but does help us put things into context https://preview.redd.it/miatmatycqih1.png… **On to CPI** \- my expectations fpr about 0.03 % MoM headline inflation and 0.05% MoM core, against consensus expectations of roughly 0.1% and 0.2%. This means the surprise value is concentrated in core once again. It is effectively a genuine coin flip between core rounding to 0.0% or 0.1%, but both readings would deliver broadly the message that the Fed remains too cautious on inflation. empirical regressions currently put a 95% probability on YoY inflation falling so In other words, consensus the ceiling, not base case. The softer inflation pipeline rests on three main things : The used carmarket is rolling over, with the Manheim Index falling 1.4% in July against a typical seasonal gain. The World Cup hangover should begin feeding into services prices following the months in which the tournament was actually played. The tariff payback that almost nobody is currently modelling. Sharing some more S&P500 earnings data because this remains one of the most important reasons behind my bullish view. https://preview.redd.it/gum0e1e0dqih1.png… They are now expected to grow by roughly 32% in 2026, more than double the 15% growth expected at the beginning of the year. We have never seen earnings growth this strong outside of the rebounds that normally follow a recession. This time there was no recession, just an unprecedented AI-driven investment and earnings boom. AI isalso becoming too big to fail with Nvidia’s potential $500 billion financing push could keep the buildout funded for longer, helping stabilise DRAM demand and supporting SOXX. On the Qs I managed to execute a long at $720 as per yesterday's analysis and am still holding https://preview.redd.it/u5zj01a1dqih1.png… If you've been following me, I took profits on the SOXX longs opened at $520 at $550 but i have not opened a new trade there. However I am likley to allocate a small unleveraged position in DRAM towards the \^$60 mark instead https://preview.redd.it/yahl7k82dqih1.png… SPY is looking more and more supportive for a move towards the $780 mark. https://preview.redd.it/voashra4dqih1.png… TLDR - I am still long Qs from yesterday's dip, looking to add DRAM, CPI is likely to be lower than consensus