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u/jerry_farmer 1 day ago Strategy

Probability matters more than the strategy itself

One thing I’ve come to understand about trading is that a profitable strategy doesn’t make money because every trade is a good trade. It makes money because, over a large enough sample, the probabilities are in your favor. If your system has a genuine positive expectancy, then taking more valid opportunities allows that statistical edge to play out more often. This is why I think traders sometimes focus too much on finding the “perfect strategy” and not enough on understanding probability, position sizing, risk management and sample size.
24 comments held Reddit says 0 on reddit ↗
  1. u/[deleted] 1 1 day ago

    [removed] — already gone when the archive first saw it

  2. u/Vegetable-Act7793 1 1 day ago
    Damn. Those are alot of trades. There is no way this is profitable. 30M with that many trades means you are trading noise. I doubt there is that much edge on that tineframe. You will lose money. 
  3. u/jerry_farmer OP 1 1 day ago
    It trades on 5 min chart, and yes it’s profitable. Screenshot is on 30 min to get the whole view
  4. u/Unlikely-Leg-8819 1 1 day ago
    I understand the point you're trying to make. But this screenshot on a 5 min chart looks regarded lol
  5. u/[deleted] 1 1 day ago

    [removed] — already gone when the archive first saw it

  6. u/moobicool 1 1 day ago
    Scalper bots can do this, it only matters brokers spread, slippage and commissions.
  7. u/Icy_Speech_7715 1 1 day ago
    Breaking: The bear does actually shit in the woods!
  8. u/jerry_farmer OP 1 1 day ago
    Explain this to all the people asking everyday about new indicators to become profitable
  9. u/Mr_Xet 1 1 day ago
    Can tell something about your strategy. Maybe a quick overview of something like that that?
  10. u/perihelion86 1 1 day ago
    The infrastructure and the discipline also matter more than the strategy itself
  11. u/DisarmedS 1 1 day ago
    The sky is blue ahh post
  12. u/Serious-Insect2162 1 1 day ago
    brokers favourite child
  13. u/Budget-Principle-352 1 1 day ago
    Profitable after spread and comission? Backtested over what time period? Or only a week or two live tested?
  14. u/Radiant_Persimmon701 1 1 day ago
    Wow, how insightful.
  15. u/silphotographer 1 1 day ago
    "If" And if you are accomplished enough to find strategy with real edge and know the thesis and backtest/stress test hold water then they already know what to do.
  16. u/Forward-Butterfly301 1 1 day ago
    Can u show history report?
  17. u/[deleted] 1 1 day ago

    [deleted] — already gone when the archive first saw it

  18. u/jerry_farmer OP 1 1 day ago
  19. u/Maximum-Phase-Rise 1 1 day ago
    May I ask average position holding time? Also curious if do you consider time-of-day (or sessions) in your algo strategy?
  20. u/jerry_farmer OP 1 1 day ago
    Average time is 5 mins, and yes I run different algos for market opening hours vs extended hours
  21. u/on_hype 1 1 day ago
    Agreed. Edge \* frequency \* sizing = returns. Most people overtune the edge and ignore the other two variables entirely.
  22. u/jerry_farmer OP 1 1 day ago
    Exactly, even myself, I spent so many time trying to improve strategies, when they were actually profitable but just needed proper risk management / sizing.
  23. u/LongjumpingPush1966 1 23 hours ago
    Would love to connect, im actually building something similar ànd almost done but would love to connect if that’s possible or so 🙏
  24. u/LongjumpingPush1966 1 18 hours ago
    Do you have e a sample we can test, working on something similar would love to connect if that’s cool with you OP