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u/struggleman55 1 day ago

Has anyone also ever switch to calls/puts last minute on earnings and had the stock do the opposite?

As the titles states, I bought calls on RIOT who had earnings today. Over a month out expiry. Through all the speculation and fud I read through leading up to earnings I thought they’d miss, and still fall like they have before many times. So I bought puts. Then earnings sent it soaring all the way up to my strike. I know many people had probably had the same thing happen, and I’m wondering how to stop driving yourself crazy over a trade like this. I should have trusted my gut, blocked out the bs, and I could’ve gained all my losses for the year with that trade. But now, that’s not happening. Thinking of taking a long hiatus to get my head right again. PS: I know playing earnings is a complete toss up, so I take responsibility for the trade. I typically don’t trade earnings for this reason and certainly won’t again.
36 comments held Reddit says 0 on reddit ↗
  1. u/Popular-Candidate-66 1 1 day ago
    Best to buy CSPs during earnings as an option. Riot just ran riot. It will probably fall with a one month expiry. This market is irrational no matter how much research you do. Anything can happen anytime.
  2. u/struggleman55 OP 1 1 day ago
    Yeah that’s the one. Played RIOT and Im watching my $25 strike almost get reached overnight. Absolutely painful, but yeah the market does what the market wants. Just wish I would have stuck to my original plan.
  3. u/Groucho-and-Harpo 1 1 day ago
    I agree. Either CSPs or or deep ITM covered calls at earnings. If the stock soars, all of the extrinsic value pre-earnings goes to profit. If it tanks, the covered call goes worthless and you can wait for the stock to go up again. If you started with CSP, you get the stock and wait for it to recover. Of course there is some risk that the stock could tank really hard and never recover so you have to figure in that risk.
  4. u/efrew 1 1 day ago
    Earning is always a toss up. Don’t worry. Anyone that’s been trading for a while has suffered this multiple times. Don’t dwell on it. Onto the next trade
  5. u/struggleman55 OP 1 1 day ago
    I appreciate that. It’s been eating me alive all night. Gotta shake this one off
  6. u/rain168 1 1 day ago
    Can relate. It less about the loss but all about the gains that could have been.
  7. u/struggleman55 OP 1 1 day ago
    Exactly. Could have brought back the last few months of losses and then some probably. Sucks
  8. u/Legitimate-Bass-4573 1 1 day ago
    dont beat yourself up over it the market does this to everyone at some point. i did the exact same thing with a tech stock last year switched my position 30 minutes before close and watched the chart go the opposite way. the overthinking is what kills you more than the loss itself you know? taking a break sounds like a good move honestly just to reset your head
  9. u/struggleman55 OP 1 1 day ago
    I appreciate that. Yeah this would have helped my port in a big way, but now I’m gonna just hold off for a few weeks.
  10. u/No_Turn5018 1 1 day ago
    Usually I would just buy some of the opposite of whatever I got that was a little farther out and a little cheaper as a hedge. 
  11. u/Ambitious_South_2825 1 1 day ago
    Ah, don't really care about playing earnings a whole lot. I might do a calendar or a diagonal - sometimes a broken wing butterfly. But, I don't bet a whole lot on earnings ever.
  12. u/struggleman55 OP 1 1 day ago
    Yeah Im thinking this will be the last time I play earnings. The loss I’ll take tomorrow isn’t substantial, but the gains I could have made from my calls are what really stings the most.
  13. u/gaana15 1 1 day ago
    Glad that loss is not substantial. That means you have done your part in sizing it right. I believe you already know that you won't be 100% right on every trade, and you are expected to take losses when you are wrong. Do refine your strategy and plan, but I don't see any reasons for you to give up playing earnings if that's what you believe in. Every distribution will have some loss-making trades and some profit-making trades. What is really bothering you is that you switched the plan, which is also normal for a discretionary trader. This is where the probability plays a very big role in trading. I'm sure there have been times when you switched your plans, followed your gut, and it proved right for you. Be kind to yourself and distract yourself from this one loss.
  14. u/struggleman55 OP 1 1 day ago
    Really appreciate this. You are right, just wasn’t my day today. I gotta stop dwelling but it’s been a tough one.
  15. u/wentwj 1 1 day ago
    i don’t think anyone’s every gotten an option call wrong before earnings. You’re the first
  16. u/klipsetrades 1 1 day ago
    If RIOT had dumped after you switched to calls, would you still be saying you should trust your gut more?
  17. u/struggleman55 OP 1 1 day ago
    Fair point. I did switch from a call that was a month out to weekly puts. So I definitely felt more conviction with the monthly than the weekly, but I definitely see your point here.
  18. u/klipsetrades 1 1 day ago
    Yeah for sure. So, honestly the bigger takeaway might be the timeframe change, not even call vs put. Going from a month out to a weekly dramatically changed what you needed the stock to do
  19. u/uncleBu 1 1 day ago
    No bro, I am not gambling so I stick to a system. Feelings have nothing to do with it. Playing earnings is only a toss up because you don’t have developed an edge.
  20. u/struggleman55 OP 1 1 day ago
    Thats fair, Im working to remove the emotion out of trading. As we know, it can be difficult in moments like these regardless of what your plan is or how long you’ve been trading. At least for me.
  21. u/imfantabulous 1 1 day ago
    You're just gambling on earnings for the dopamine hit. If recommend stopping before you lose everything. From personal experience.
  22. u/rangerrockit 1 1 day ago
    Earnings is very tough because of vol crush and high IV which drives the premium substantially higher than usual. Unless it’s for insurance purposes, stay away from earnings or wait until IV returns to HV average
  23. u/UOkayBrah 1 1 day ago
    "could have gained all my losses for the year with that trade" is how you drive yourself crazy. Earnings itself is whatever, unless your losses for the year minute, making them all back in one trade means too much risk. Fix the risk and you'll fix the mental side of it.  Make money selling earnings and profiting from vega, otherwise you probably need to find a way to play a direction and minimize vega. Everyone has a wrong thesis here and there, that's natural but if you risk adequate amounts on the trade and follow your system then you don't get crazy. 
  24. u/F2PBTW_YT 1 1 day ago
    Playing earnings is not only a toss up, but you are already playing a losing bet. IV crush will wipe our your contract even if it went in your favour. It needs to really move strongly in your favour too see those gamma prints.
  25. u/phinancial-freedom 1 1 day ago
    Don’t beat yourself up over this, we have all been there. Earnings trades are basically coin flips wrapped in volatility, and even when you *do* have a solid read, the market loves to do the exact opposite just to spite you. The fact that your thesis was actually right — and the move still went against your position — just shows how chaotic these setups are. Everyone who’s traded long enough has a story like this. You see the setup, you feel the gut instinct, you hesitate because of noise, and then you watch the chart do exactly what you originally thought it would. The important thing is this: One trade doesn’t define you, and it definitely doesn’t define your year. What *does* matter is that you recognized the mistake, owned it, and you’re thinking about how to keep your head clear going forward. That’s already more discipline than most people ever develop. Taking a break isn’t a bad idea at all. Sometimes stepping away for a bit is exactly what resets your mindset and gets you out of the “I could’ve made X” spiral. When you come back, you’ll, more objective, and less likely to chase or revenge‑trade (again we have all done that!) If I am going to trade earnings I am always selling vs buying Before earnings, implied volatility is jacked up, so buying options means you’re paying a huge premium. After earnings, IV collapses instantly — that “IV crush” destroys the value of long calls and puts even if the stock moves in your direction. When you **sell** options (ideally in defined‑risk structures like credit spreads or iron condors), you’re doing the opposite: you’re *collecting* that inflated premium and benefiting from IV collapsing. You don’t need a huge move — you just need the stock not to explode past your strikes. It’s not “safe,” but it’s more statistically favorable because most earnings moves are smaller than what the market prices in.
  26. u/zoinkinator 1 1 day ago
    If you are trading with emotion and flip flopping trades its best to stop and use strategies to minimize risk and reduce the percentage of your portfolio in play. This way you lose less. Unfortunately it also means gaining less. Aiming for a home run every at bat is incredibly difficult. Risk management is the most important skill to develop as a stock trader.
  27. u/LegitimateResolve522 1 1 day ago
    No. I avoid intentionally trading around earnings because of unpredictability
  28. u/BizarreReverend76 1 1 day ago
    If youre going to trade earnings, you should start looking at it in terms of volatility and not direction. There is a price movement implied by the option's IV. The only question is whether or not you think thats reasonable. If so, buy a straddle. If not, sell a straddle (or butterfly or condor or whatever)
  29. u/Such-Hawk9672 1 1 day ago
    No but I was out of margen or I would have put a on a put trade and the company crushed numbers, I would have lost a lot, I'm doing better homework and trusting my numbers, at the moment I have no margen,I cleaned up the books, what I will pick there will be no reservations or changing my mind, I may have to roll lol
  30. u/SoftBreezeWanderer 1 1 day ago
    "Has anybody gambled and then a random thing happened because gambling then I got gambled on?" lmao
  31. u/InevitableRun51 1 1 day ago
    By not trading earnings unless you’re sure 
  32. u/Mysterious_Blood1489 1 19 hours ago
    I will never trade earnings again after these past 2 weeks
  33. u/QuesoHusker 1 1 day ago
    I’ve done very well selling CCs on NVDA at par the Friday before earnings (always Wed) expiring the following Friday. Capture the volatility on the way up and watch the price drop on earnings.
  34. u/SDirickson 1 1 day ago
    last minute on earnings....I’m wondering how to stop driving yourself crazy over a trade like this
    You answered your own question: don't do the first part, and the second part won't be a problem.
  35. u/WoodpeckerCapital167 1 21 hours ago
    Roulette is easier 
  36. u/Mysterious_Blood1489 1 19 hours ago
    Its literally a 50/50 shot so you think, hey I gotta hit a few. Nope, its more like a 10/90 shot lol. Just trade day of or go in really small if you betting one-way