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u/Quechivoeth 1 day ago Investing

China ships most of the world's AI networking parts, but the profitable bits inside are still American. Does "market share" mislead people here?

Been looking into the optical side of AI, the gear that moves data between chips in a data center, since it's quietly become one of the biggest trades in Chinese stocks. Zhongji Innolight is now the single heaviest stock in China's main index, ahead of even CATL and Moutai, off the back of huge growth selling these parts to the likes of NVIDIA. But here's what keeps nagging me. Chinese firms build most of the finished units, but the expensive stuff inside them, the chips and lasers, still mostly comes from US companies like Broadcom and Lumentum. So China wins on volume while a big chunk of the actual profit sits upstream with American suppliers. Makes me wonder how much of the China dominates AI optics story is really a volume story dressed up as a profit story. Would you rather own the company with the biggest market share, or the quieter one upstream with the fatter margins?
11 comments held Reddit says 0 on reddit ↗
  1. u/mrmrdarren 1 1 day ago
    or the quieter one upstream with the fatter margins?
    something something selling shovels during a gold rush
  2. u/Quechivoeth OP 1 1 day ago
    fun part is that in this gold rush there's like two layers of shovel sellers
  3. u/Silentxgold 1 1 day ago
    You have the handle bars and the actual shovel.
  4. u/jayjaywalkinggg 1 1 day ago
    The ET stick and the ET blade
  5. u/Silentxgold 1 1 day ago
    Dang, reminded me of the flimsy "new entrenching tool" given to us like 13 yrs ago. Looks nice but when trying to really dig, sucks. The tool and handle is ok, the joint part super suspect. In the end we just white tape our shell scrapes lol.
  6. u/mrmrdarren 1 1 day ago
    Ill sell you the wood for the handle
  7. u/Primary_Olive_5444 1 1 day ago
    Isn't it the same as Apple iphone? Smaller market share relative to Android in terms of OS, but Iphone capture the bulk of the smartphone profits. But optical (or aka silicon photonics) is just to move data at lower pico-joules/per bit. Moving large amount of data on PCB copper trace consumes more energy than the actual compute. Because copper suffer from signal integrity problems (eye diagram collapse @ 200Gbps transmission). And copper have problems with scale-out (> 2m transmission distance). Maybe gold shovel, but optical doesn't do compute at the end of the day. So i think it's about integration with direct compute that really makes the money. https://hc2024.hotchips.org/assets/program/conference/day2/62\_HC2024.Intel.Fathololoumi.Final.pdf Slide 12.
  8. u/princemousey1 1 1 day ago
    LYTE ETF?
  9. u/Puzzleheaded-Dog-910 1 1 day ago
    AI slop. " But here's what keeps nagging me." " Would you rather own the company with the biggest market share, or the quieter one upstream with the fatter margins?" Even the damn title has signs of AI slop. above all: there's no actual argument or point that is being made, just a bunch of engagement-bait rhetorical questions. 
  10. u/DadAtHomeFire50 1 1 day ago
    No need to stretch the imagination. ASML makes the lithographic machines, at €400M a piece. TSMC uses them to make 90% of the world's processing chips. Companies like Nvidia and others send their designs to TSMC to make the chips. Companies like SMCI buy components from Nvidia and others to build GPU servers. Companies like SpaceX buy servers from SMCI to build AI farms. Companies like Anthropic rent compute time from SpaceX to power their AI. Customers pay fees to use Claude. Have not even included everything around this eg power, connectivity, etc. This vertical slice of the AI pyramid, which company, if you have to pick one, would you buy into? Is ASML the pick and shovel here or is it TSMC or is it Nvidia? Which has a bigger moat? Can N do what it does without A/T? Maybe. Can T do without A? Yes. Can A continue to sell without N/T? For sure. Yet the 5T company is N.
  11. u/Dear_Effect_2139 1 15 hours ago
    It is basically selling the shovels except AI turns it into one whole supply chain.