It works but not sure why!

How stupid

Exactly me

Y’all Quantz are just pissed that you put yourself out of a job…

Thanks for providing liquidity :)

Lookahead, survivorship bias, non causal transactions, no fees, perfect execution, overfit Ask Claude to at least audit the strategy for any of the above. Also Claude should be able to give you a summary of what exactly the strategy is easy enough.

That was my first guess but not much issue on performance, ran fable 5 and burned insane credit for it in the meantime

had to do all the backtests again after the comments and here's claude's response: So: the mockery isn't really informative, but the one technical comment landed on the same honest caveat I already gave you — overfitting is the thing paper trading actually tests, everything else on comments has a real answer already built into this session's work.

Talking to Claude makes me want to vomit sometimes. Open up the codebase yourself and trace through the transaction cost or at least get some MC simulation going as well. I'd imagine it's some mixture of transaction cost and lucky run bias.

Take your code to another LLM, even a free one, and see what it says.

can also start a new Claude conversation with a fresh context window, and tell it ChatGPT created the strategy, and ask it to double-check it.

So you want a golden-egg-laying goose, but are gonna be surprised at its cost

Hidden lookahead bias. What is your OOS performance?

Can you ELI5 what do you mean by hidden lookahead bias? I assume here hidden means unintentional? (Sorry newbie here)

It just means it isn't obvious where the cheating is.

Thanks

Example of unintentional lookahead bias: Data: OHLC data of the top 1000 stocks each day by total dollar volume Strategy: I have a momentum strategy. between 9:30am to 9:45am I look at the largest 20 movers (up or down) and continue trading them from 9:46am to 3pm -- long/short at 9:46am based on their trend, close out everything at 3pm. Can you find the lookahead bias?

Again sorry if my answer is so stupid; but here the strategy is making decisions only after we have observed the movements between 9:30-9:45, and only made a decision at 9:46. However we here have a hidden Lookahead bias because the candle could be Open,High,Low,Close or Open,Low,High,Close. Meaning our algo will probably chose what it thinks its the best outcome we wish for, not necessarily what actually happened.? I.e the hidden part

I'm new to this but guessing that its: your universe is created using the entire day's volume, which you wouldn't know at 9:45 AM

Yes, I think this would surface breakout mid/smaller caps that might not have been in the universe evaluated on a smaller timeframe because they wouldn't have had time to pass other larger but boring stocks in volume.

entries are next-bar-open after a bar-close signal confirms, not same-bar. The streaming bot was validated bit-identical to the vectorized backtest across thousands of trades.  getting the oos performance now

OOS came out PF 2.15

You should ask Claude!

This made me chuckle 😂

:)

Most stuff looks great on backtest or at least not as bad. Run it in paper then see

running it from tomorrow, will share the results here!

It doesn’t, I promise

will share paper trading results tomorrow and lets scrutinize together, as i want to be very skeptical.

Even by making this post, you are not skeptical enough. Claude did not magically create a strategy that works this well. It’s just not how this works.

i agree, and thanks for your comment! i want to know what the faults are as i paper trade

There’s a lot more you could do to investigate this than paper trading

A day is not going to give you a definitive answer

fuck around and find out why

Paper trading on Alpaca tomorrow, let’s see

thats not how you find out, paper trading doesn't account for fills, slippage and fees. go live

if it hold PF of 2 for 1 month then i will surely go live, if not will start working on next strategy

Start with paper brother you'll notice. If slipage is a problem or high speed then consider.

Underrated comment. You won't get actual fills and you won't truly know if your strategy works. For someone who has gone down this path, I can almost gurantee this dude is going to lose money.

Some truth to this but definitely wouldn't skip paper trading, gotta make sure it's working as designed first

Ask Claude why! Lol

has anyone actually pulled their funds out of these accounts that need money in and got their money??..

What??? lol

ok what I mean is. .. when u get offered to sign up somewhere and bots help trade. I guess I was just wondering if anyone actually utilized that tool on here and managed to make money off of it.. cuz I've read everywhere it's mostly scams.. not this thread itself.

Don’t use a brokerage that you wouldn’t trust with normal trading.

If you're not sure why, then the answer is either luck or error.

This type of post reminds me of how simple-minded the general population really is. The complete lack of scrutiny of an impossible result and the absence of any attempt to investigate how such a result was obtained make me wonder how we ever got this far as a species.

i mean, do you have to know what the strategy is when it works? 😂

Wow. Again, the complete lack of curiosity on your part is NOT good quality to have. I guess I’ll help you out a little. The first step in this process is for you to define what “works” actually means. The immediate flaw you need to come to terms with is that your current standard of “it works” seems to be that Claude prints out a chart showing the numbers going up. That is a VERY fragile definition of something working.

LH is right. In even the shallowest analysis, not touching on any algotrading actual metrics, it can succeed (and frequently does) because of a bug that happens to favorably coincide with market conditions. Or a limitation in analysis that seems to work, but when it hits live, totally wipes out the algo. One of those is partial fills, volumes, or mistakes with limit prices that allow your account to get scorched in the real market. What does it mean to "work"? That plot isn't it.

Which prompt do you used?

thanks for the suggestion, used Atlas(ChatGPT) and data from a different source but the results are PF +/- 0.13 different, will try again on Gemini

Thanks for saying thanks! It's so nice to see Redditors being grateful :)

Cool, I will try your strategy to ask a Claude to create an algo for XAU

yes, do it! ask it generate flowchart in with exact mathematical terms and keep on feeding it data. backtest on sonnet and strategy generation on Fable

What do you mean “it works”? Because you see equity curve go up and think “yes, me get rich now”. You vibe coded something and now are asking Reddit to reverse engineer it for you? Do you really think it would be that easy to build a working strategy with an edge using Claude? You are in for a world of pain if you ever run this with real money. I assume you’ll just take the easy way out, ask Claude to find mistakes… and the in the end did you really learn anything?

is it not working when equity curves go up? go up= goood, go down= bad?

Have it make an html tool that looks like trading view and then have it put the trades entries and exits on the chart. You should be able to tell at that point a little bit of how the strategy works. You could then ask it to screenshot random trades to make sure it is a valid trade.

doing it now, thanks

is the strategy purely price based? if yes, very likely curve fit. did you test the strategy on any price data outside the window you “trained” on?

its a mix of Vwap, netdrift and gex gate for trade entries

Run it forward on paper but do some sensitivity analysis on your entry/exit price - and focus on the unfavorable variance. Paper fills are typically optimistic and are without market impact as size scales

I think I’ve turned my Claude into a pessimist. I can’t get it to give me anything that survives proper testing, and more often than not, it tells me an idea is ‘killed’ way before I’m willing to give up on it.

been through the same thing, it doent work if you ask it to generate ideas, you have give it some direction, i have had great results with net drift and gex gate, get data from some api providers, try different angles.

Gave it everything, added the make no mistake part , came back with your stuff happens but it’s worthless. Told just do whatever, told me nah trading just doesn’t work.

Wrap it up bruh 😭😭😭

Would be happy to help, first what type of strategy is this? Mean revers / Trend following? What timeframe and how do you model execution on your backtest?

Because it doesn't

When those that don't know choose to fight back, why not let them learn the hard way?

It's probably because your regression is picking up on phase shifts in the quadrature.

I’m kinda at the point where the internet ain’t worth it anymore.

Lookahead / data leakage, that's all you need to know..

Run permutation tests

Ask Claude?

Funny enough when I’ve spoken to quants a lot of them also seem to be in the realm of “we have an idea of why it might work we just don’t why it does work”

It does not work, it might seem like it does This is why llms cam be dangerous Paper trading in time tell u if it does or does not work.  But not "why". And so it is not the right step to iterate. You need to look at what it does. Read the code. At the very least ask claude tk break the algo in steps and understand every single line. How do u treat nans, ffilling, bfilling, reindexing, what do u do around weekends The cost assumptions, biases, overfitting risks, slippage, execution assumptions. Then the core hypothesis, etc etc Getting a black box algo and putting it live based on a backtest is so so far from how trading works. I am saying this as someone who trades with deep nns. The more u understand what the algo does the more hopes it will work. No understanding = no hope.

How did you even create the strategy if you don’t know the variables you dumped into it?

It's a stupidly straight equity curve and 2026 has been wild so it not real, it's some artifact of a poor backtest.

If Claude could give you alpha, do you think anthropic would've sold you a sub?

Anthropic is selling shovels at this point, you can dig with an idea where to find, or even potentially get lucky by random (very unlikely)

Whats the freuqency? What data source you using?

You could share the source with me so I can run it in my own custom engine to see if the results add up to what you are seeing on your end

There is only one way to find out in practice…

Ask Claude or Chat these two questions at the end. It’ll go from “this works” to explaining why many of its own backtests are BS.

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